基于改进ISM-DEMATEL的高速铁路列车晚点致因因素分析

Analysis of Factors Causing High Speed Railway Train Delay Based on Improved ISM-DEMATEL

高速铁路列车晚点致因因素分析可以为高速铁路运营提供决策支持,提高高速铁路列车的运行效率。针对高速铁路列车晚点的现象,从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和其他因素4个维度,提取16个高速铁路列车晚点的具体致因因素。利用ISM法分析各要素间的关联关系和影响机制,并通过DEMATEL法来简化ISM的运算。考虑专家分析的主观性和模糊性,将三角模糊数引入到DEMATEL法中,构建一种改进的ISM-DEMATEL集成方法,将其运用到高速铁路列车晚点致因因素的分析当中,发现高速铁路列车晚点是所有因素共同作用的结果,控制较低层级的致因因素是避免高速铁路列车晚点的有效途径。

The analysis of factors causing high speed railway train delay can provide decision support for the operation and improve the operation efficiency. Aiming at high speed railway train delay, this paper extracted 16 specific factors causing delay from the four dimensions of human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, and other factors.The interpretive structural modeling(ISM) was utilized to analyze the relationship and influence mechanism between these factors, and the operation of ISM was simplified by decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL).Considering the subjectivity and fuzziness of experts in analyzing the factors causing the delay, triangular fuzzy numbers were introduced into DEMATEL method to construct an improved ISM-DEMATEL integration method and applied to the analysis of the factors causing the delay. The results indicate the high speed railway train delay results from the joint action of all factors, and controlling the lower-level causes is an effective way to avoid the delay.