“福岛核事故”以来德国的能源转向政策——兼析中国的对策

Germany’s Energy Transition Since the Fukushima Nuclear Accident and Analysis of China’s Response

日本“福岛核事故”后,德国能源转向的步伐加快。学界对支撑这一政策变化的内在逻辑一直有所争论。本文从政党博弈、能源市场以及能源结构三个维度,通过对“福岛核事故”发生前后德国在这些方面的变化的微观分析,探寻了德国能源转向的真正动因,进一步分析了德国能源转向的发展趋势。德国的能源转向政策有其独特性,是两德统一以来碎片化的政党政治下政党博弈与利益妥协的结果,而德国—欧盟间的合作能源市场“对冲”了“去核化”的能源损失,符合德国当前能源结构的发展模式,具有稳定性。可再生能源的发展、弃核计划以及能源效率的提高是德国能源发展的主要趋势。“核事故”对德国能源政策的影响有限,更不会改变德国能源发展的主要趋势。面对德国执政党的更迭,中国应当采取更进取的外交态度,利用双方在非传统安全领域的共同关切来稳定和改善中德关系。

The pace of Germany’s energy transition has become apparent since the Fukushima nuclear accident. The underlying logic that underpins this policy change has been debated. The paper discusses the real motives of Germany’s energy transition and analyzes the trend of the transition through a micro-analysis of the changes before and after the Fukushima nuclear accident from three perspectives: political party games, energy market, and energy structure. Germany’s energy transition policy is unique in that it is the result of party games and compromise of interests under the fragmented party politics since the reunification of Germany. In the meantime, the German-EU cooperative energy market has “hedged” the energy loss of “denuclearization”, which is in line with Germany’s energy transition policy. The development of renewable energy sources, denuclearization programs and energy efficiency improvements are the main trends in Germany’s energy sector. The impact of the nuclear accident on Germany’s energy policy is limited and will not change the trend of its energy development. Amid the change of Germany’s ruling party, China should adopt a more proactive approach with Germany and take advantage of the common concerns of both countries in non-traditional security to stabilize and improve ChinaGermany relations.