沪港通对上市公司盈余预测质量的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect on the Information Prediction Quality of Listed Companies

本文利用固定效应模型和PSM-DID模型深入研究沪港通政策的实施对我国证券分析师预测上市企业财务盈余情况的质量影响,上市公司财务盈余预测质量以证券分析师盈余预测偏差和分析师盈余预测分歧度两个指标为衡量标准,并进一步深入探究了我国证券分析师对上市企业财务预测能力发生变化的影响反应机理.实证分析结果表明沪港通政策的实旋增加了证券分析师盈余预测偏差,提高了证券分析师财务盈余预测分歧度,从而直接降低了证券分析师对上市公司的盈余预测质量;沪港通的实施和开通可能会给沪港通标的公司股票价格带来较大的波动性,而更注重研究报告对市场预测進确度的明星分析师会降低对此类上市公司的关注度,明星分析师对某一公司跟踪数量的减少降低了该公司的分析师盈余预测质量,而沪港通政策的实施对高经验值分析师跟踪数量没有显著影响.

This paper uses the fixed effects model and the PSM-DID model to deeply study the impact of the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy on the quality of China's securities analysts5 forecasts of listed companies5 financial earnings.The two indicators of earnings fbrecast divergence are the measurement standards,and fnrther explore the reaction mechanism of China's securities analysts to changes in the financial forecasting ability of listed companies.The empirical analysis results show that the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy has increased the deviation of securities analysts5 earnings fbrecasts and increased the divergence of securities analysts1 financial earnings forecasts,thereby directly reducing the quality of the earnings forecasts of securities analysts for listed companies;the implementation of the.Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect And the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect may bring greater volatility to the stock prices of the target companies of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect,and star analysts who pay more attention to the accuracy of market forecasts in research reports will reduce their attention to the stocks of such companies.The decrease in the mumber of tracking by a company reduces the quality of the company's analyst earnings forecasts,and the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy has no significant impact on the tracking number of analysts with high experience value.