艾丁湖流域绿洲湿地退变成因及发展趋势预测

The cause of degradation of the oasis wetland in the Aiding Lake Basin and the prediction of its development trend

通过搜集分析1976-2018年艾丁湖流域径流量、用水总量、耗水总量、艾丁湖湖面面积、水资源利用量、地下水开采量、人类总耗水量与天然绿洲、人工绿洲的面积数据,从艾丁湖湖面面积和天然植被区状况两个方面对艾丁湖流域天然绿洲湿地系统的退变成因进行分析,并从影响其衰退的主要因素角度对未来发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:(1)艾丁湖流域绿洲湿地退变主要是由流域水资源开发利用量超过水资源承载力造成的。总的变化趋势是:1976-2018年期间,人工绿洲面积随着地下水开采量的先增加后减少而呈现先增大后保持稳定的趋势。而天然绿洲面积则随着地下水开采量的先增大又逐渐减小的趋势,呈现出先减小后增大的趋势;(2)2012-2018年期间,随着生态保护政策和科学的治理方略的不断实施,地下水开采量呈现明显的下降趋势,天然绿洲面积及天然植被覆盖度均开始回升,生态环境逐渐改善;(3)在分析流域未来水资源开发利用量的基础上,对流域天然绿洲湿地系统的发展趋势进行预测可知,未来天然植被区内地下水位整体将继续降低,天然植被预计总体将进一步衰退。

Through the collection and analysis of the runoff, total water consumption, total water consumption, the area of the Aiding Lake, the area of the Aiding Lake, the utilization of water resources, the amount of groundwater extraction, the total human water consumption and the area of natural oasis and artificial oasis from 1976 to 2018 Based on the data, the reasons for the degradation of the natural oasis wetland system in the Aiding Lake basin are analyzed from the two aspects of the area of the Aiding Lake and the natural vegetation area, and the future development trend is predicted from the perspective of the main factors affecting its decline. The results show that:(1) The degeneration of the oasis wetland in the Aiding Lake basin is mainly caused by the development and utilization of water resources in the basin exceeding the water resources carrying capacity. The general trend of change is: from 1976 to 2018, the area of artificial oasis increased first and then remained stable as the amount of groundwater extracted first increased and then decreased. The area of natural oasis first increased and then gradually decreased as the amount of groundwater extracted, showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing;(2) During the period 2012-2018, with ecological protection policies and scientific governance strategies with the continuous implementation of the groundwater extraction, the amount of groundwater extraction has shown a clear downward trend, the area of natural oasis and the coverage of natural vegetation have begun to rise, and the ecological environment has gradually improved.(3) Based on the analysis of the water resources development and utilization in the watershed in the future, the prediction of the development trend of the natural oasis wetland system in the watershed shows that the groundwater level in the natural vegetation area will continue to decrease in the future, and the natural vegetation is expected to decline further overall.