旅游业“黑天鹅”事件国际研究进展综述

A Review of Overseas Research on “Black Swan” Events in Tourism

随着人为或自然灾害引发的“黑天鹅”事件大幅增加,全球旅游业遭受了巨大影响。文章将系统评述这些事件对旅游业的现实影响及后续研究,对统筹推进旅游业危机管理和灾后复苏具有重要作用。文章把“黑天鹅”引入旅游业相关重大灾难和危机事件中,以国际相关文献为研究对象,基于多个数据库运用系统归纳和文献整理的方法,从研究概况、研究主题和内容、研究方法等对已有文献进行综合分析和述评。相关文献的研究主题体现在“黑天鹅”事件对旅游业的影响、“黑天鹅”事件与目的地可持续发展、游客出游决策、旅游业危机管理与弹性、媒体等5个方面。通过国外旅游业“黑天鹅”事件的综合评述,结合我国旅游发展状况提出几点建议,以期为我国旅游业的发展提供理论指导和实际参考。

Under the background of the global tourism industry has encountered a large-scale “black swan” incident, and China’s tourism industry has been forced to press the pause button.With the development of globalization, tourism has become more and more changeable. The potential impact of “black swan” event on international tourism and tourism industry may increase in scale and frequency. A systematic review of the actual impact and follow-up development of these events on tourism industry plays an important role in promoting tourism crisis management and post disaster recovery as a whole. In this paper, the concept of “black swan” is introduced into the major disasters and crisis events related to tourism. Based on the methods of systematic induction and literature collation, the existing literature is comprehensively analyzed and commented from the research overview, research topics and contents, research methods, with the relevant foreign research literature as the research object. Related literature research topics are reflected in five aspects: the impact of “black swan” event on tourism, “black swan” event and tourists’ travel decision-making, sustainable development of destinations, media, tourism crisis management and resilience mechanism. Through the collation and analysis of relevant literature, we can find out the theme and contribution of Disaster Tourism Research in foreign countries:(1) arouse people’s basic attention to the concept of "black swan" event in tourism industry and the normalization of tourism crisis;(2) analyze the importance of interdisciplinary research, which involves many fields, including economy, geography, enterprise, politics and ecology;(3) from the macro level, the research is increasingly turning to the micro level of tourists’ psychology and behavior, to develop the resilience mechanism index and evaluation method of disaster recovery;(4) to explore the importance of tourism as an environmentally vulnerable industry to develop an effective crisis management and prevention system. After summarizing and combing, it is found that foreign research shows the following aspects: insufficient theoretical concept and equipment;single application;insufficient hazard assessment and imbalance of research focus in the study of tourism “black swan” event;lack of awareness of policy and agenda making in tourism crisis management;research methods are mainly quantitative analysis such as regression analysis and mathematical model. Based on the comprehensive review, this paper puts forward the prospect for further research: the future research should be based on the medium and micro-perspective to carry out multi-level continuous tracking research on the stakeholders of post disaster tourism industry, including the changes of tourists’ behavior, tourists’ psychological perception, media information monitoring, resilience flexibility testing and promoting the sustainable development of tourism industry and tourism destinations. Finally, combined with development of Chinese tourism industry, we put forward some suggestions for the development of tourism and related industries, in order to provide practical guidance value for the development of theoretical framework for tourism research and the gradual recovery of tourism.