沿黄地区土地政策试点对区域发展的影响——基于断点回归的政策效益检验

The impact of land policy pilot projects along the Yellow River on regional development——test of policy benefit based on regression discontinuity design

土地试点政策是创新土地改革模式的重要方式,是乡村振兴背景下推动农村经济发展的重要动力。本文利用沿黄地区10个试点地2008—2018年面板数据,考察了土地试点政策实施对沿黄地区经济发展的影响。结果表明:(1)土地试点政策实施,对沿黄地区各流域经济发展影响效果存在空间差异,表现为中、下游区域对经济发展的带动作用弱于上游区域,上、中、下游区域发展不均衡,得以改进但仍然存在;(2)土地试点政策对沿黄地区上、中、下游区域经济发展存在迎臂效应,表现为最优带宽的50%的带动效应显著大于最优带宽的100%及200%。分析原因主要是各地区地理位置、地区间自然资源、人力资源等存在差异。可见,土地试点政策实施影响着沿黄地区经济发展,且具有较高的灵活性。因此,在土地试点政策实施过程中,要结合本地区实际发展情况,优化比较优势,提高政策精准性、有效性,持续推进改革步伐,进而提升沿黄地区经济实力。

Background,aim,and scope Land pilot policies are an important way for the innovation of land reform models,as well as an essential driving force for rural economic development in the context of rural revitalization.The previous studies reveal that:there are few comprehensive studies on rural land pilot policies;the research on the spillover effects of land pilot policies is insufficient;studies seldom use econometric methods to investigate the impact of land pilot policies on economic development.This paper explores the impact of land pilot policy implementation on economic development along the Yellow River regions using the panel data from 2008 to 2018 for 10 pilot sites along the Yellow River.Material and methods The data in this paper were obtained from the annual China County Statistical Yearbook(2008—2018),China City Statistical Yearbook(2008—2018),the regional statistical yearbooks(2008—2018),and the regional statistical bulletins on national economic and social development(2008—2018).This paper focuses on the impact of land pilot policies on economic development in different watersheds along the Yellow River Basin through a breakpoint regression model.Results(1)There were spatial differences in the impact effects of the land pilot policy on the economic development of the various areas along the Yellow River,manifesting as a weaker driving effect on the economic development in the midstream and downstream areas than in the upstream areas,and uneven development among these areas,which has been improved but still exists.(2)The pilot land policy had a YIMBY(yes in my back yard)effect on the economic development of the upstream,midstream and downstream regions along the Yellow River,with the 50%of the driving effect of the optimal bandwidth in the upstream areas significantly greater than 100%of that in the midstream areas and 200%of that in the downstream areas.Discussion The results indicated that the implementation of the land pilot policy did have effect on the economic development of the areas along the Yellow River.But the driving effects on different regions were of different degrees and these regions were at different levels of economic development.This is mainly due to the diverse characteristics of the geographic location,natural resources and human resources in these regions,which are essential to the development of the economy and should be emphasized and appropriately exploited.Meanwhile,the YIMBY effect was significant in all the regions along the Yellow River,which means that the land pilot policy was well recognized in these regions and had achieved a sound results.Conclusions It is obvious that the land pilot policy has an effect on the development of the areas along the Yellow River,and it should be of high flexibility,which means relevant measures are required to be taken for the adjustment of the policy in different regions according to their specific characteristics.Recommendations and perspectives During the implementation of the land pilot policy,it is important to take into account the actual development of the region,optimize its comparative advantages,improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the policy,and continue to promote the pace of reform,thereby enhancing the economic strength of the areas along the Yellow River.