水库防洪风险预警与生态调度的研究及应用

Research and application of reservoir flood risk early warning and ecological dispatching

水库防洪调度具有不确定性和实时性,何时何量下泄洪水不仅关系到防洪安全,而且对生态保护也是巨大挑战.为此提出水库防洪调度风险预警指标,在不同洪水级别下,确定合理的生态流量及生态保护策略;在分析水库防洪操作规线的基础上,将洪水实时入流情况与水库目前水位相结合,同时考虑未来洪水情势,对洪水进行监测.通过对现状洪水指标和未来6小时内洪水情势进行分析,在汛期不同阶段,确定防洪与生态调度之间的重要性顺序.以黄河上游龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库联合防洪调度为研究对象,通过防洪预警的研究及应用,确定水库防洪调度风险程度指导多目标水库防洪、生态调度,为保障黄河安澜提供决策支持,对于支撑黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义.

The uncertainty and real-time of reservoir flood control operation,when and how much flood discharged are not only related to flood control safety,but also a great challenge to ecological protection.Therefore,the early warning index of reservoir flood control operation risk is proposed in this paper.At different flood levels,reasonable ecological flow and ecological protection strategy are determined.On the basis of analyzing the operation rules of reservoir flood control,the flood inflow situation and the current reservoir level and the future flood situation are considered,to monitor the flood.Through analysing the current flood index and the flood situation in the next 6 hours,the order of importance between flood control and ecological scheduling is determined in different stages of flood season.Taking the joint flood control operation of Longyangxia reservoir and Liujiaxia reservoir in the upper reaches of the Yellow River as the research object,the flood early warning model was studied and applied.The risk degree of reservoir flood control operation is determined to guide flood control and ecological operation of multi-objective reservoirs,providing decision-making support for ensuring the safety of the Yellow River.The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin are supported,which is of great significance.