基于时间序列模型的医疗物资管理在HRP系统中的应用研究

Research on the Application of Medical Supplies Management Based on Time Series Model in HRP system

目的:研究基于时间序列模型的医疗物资管理在HRP系统中的应用,通过时间序列分析中周期趋势模型预测物资中高值耗材的需求数量,及时更新HRP中经济订货量和安全库存数量,提高存货周转率。方法:以某三甲专科医院物资科2020年基于时间序列模型预测的高值耗材需求量而通过HRP系统采购的物资库存为观察组,2019年采用传统物资采购软件的物资库存为对照组,对比两组物资中高值耗材的年订货次数、年库存周转率、月平均安全库存量、月平均库存总成本。结果:观察组物资采购中的高值耗材年订货次数、年库存周转率、月平均安全库存量、月平均库存总成本优于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P <0.05)。结论:基于时间序列模型的医疗物资管理在HRP系统中的应用,有利于提高物资管理的存货周转率,降低安全库存量,该模型在HRP中的应用值得推广使用。

Objective: This paper studies the application of medical supplies management based on time series model in HRP system,predicts the demand quantity of high-value consumables in supplies through the cycle trend model of time series analysis,updates the economic order quantity and safety stock quantity in HRP system in time,and improves the inventory turnover rate. Methods: The material inventory purchased through HRP system based on the high-value consumable demand predicted by the time series model in 2020 in the material department of a third-grade grade A specialized hospital was taken as the observation group,and that in 2019 using traditional material procurement software was taken as the control group. The annual order times,annual inventory turnover rate,monthly average safe inventory and monthly average total inventory cost of high-value consumables in the two groups of materials were compared. Results: The annual order times,annual inventory turnover rate,monthly average safe stock and monthly average total inventory cost of high-value consumables in the observation group were better than those in the control group,and the differences were statistically significant( P < 0. 05). Conclusion: The application of medical supplies management based on time series model in HRP system is beneficial to improve the inventory turnover rate of material management and reduce the safety inventory. The application of this model in HRP system is worth popularizing.