ENSO事件影响下登陆中国热带气旋年际变化特征的分位数回归分析

QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF INTERANNUAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENSO EVENTS

热带气旋每年对我国东南沿海地区造成很大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为了解登陆中国热带气旋的强度、位置和生成频率等特征,基于1949—2018年西北太平洋热带气旋数据,采用分位数回归的方法分析了登陆中国热带气旋活动年际变化特征规律。结果发现:登陆中国热带气旋活动年际变化特征受ENSO事件的影响,ElNiño年、LaNiña年和正常年登陆中国热带气旋的最大风速、最长生命期和生成位置的年际变化规律存在较大差异,且这种差异程度和热带气旋强度有关;此外,在不同的分位数下登陆中国热带气旋活动特征的年际变化趋势系数并不相同。研究结果可以为我国的东南沿海热带气旋数据分析和趋势预测提供有效的参考。

Tropical cyclones cause great casualties and economic losses to the southeast coastal areas of China every year.To understand the characteristics of the intensity,genesis location and frequency of tropical cyclones(TC)landing in China,this paper adopts the quantile regression method and uses the data of TCs from 1949 to 2018 in the Northwestern Pacific to analyze the interannual variation characteristics of TCs landing in China.The results show that the interannual variation characteristics of TCs landing in China are affected by ENSO events.The maximum wind speed,longest lifetime,and interannual variation of TCs landing in China during El Ni?o years,La Ni?a years,and normal years are quite different,and the degree of those differences is related to TC intensity.Furthermore,the interannual trend coefficients of TCs landing in China at different quantiles are not the same.The results of this study can provide effective reference for the data analysis and trend prediction of tropical cyclones in the southeast coast of China.