济南市2015-2020年4类重大慢性病死亡水平及早死概率变化趋势分析

Analysis on mortality and premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan,2015-2020

目的分析2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率的特点及其变化趋势。方法利用2015-2020年济南市的死因监测资料和人口资料,应用简略寿命表法、Joinpoint回归法等方法,分析4类重大慢性病早死概率的特点及变化趋势。结果2015-2020年4类重大慢性病的粗死亡率、标化死亡率变化范围分别为568.65/10万~604.06/10万、366.77/10万~432.48/10万。2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率平均每年下降3.33%[平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=-3.33%,95%CI:-6.25%~-0.32%],以心脑血管疾病(AAPC=-3.23%,95%CI:-6.32%~-0.05%)和恶性肿瘤(AAPC=-3.58%,95%CI:-6.83%~-0.21%)下降为主,女性下降速度(AAPC=-4.19%,95%CI:-7.56%~-0.70%)大于男性(AAPC=-2.92%,95%CI:-5.65%~-0.11%)。结论2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势,防控工作中应将男性群体列为重点人群,还要注意慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病的下降趋势不显著的现象。

Objective To understand the characteristics and trend of the premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020.Methods The death cause surveillance data and population data during 2015-2020 in Ji'nan were collected,and abbreviated life table,Joinpoint regression analysis and other methods were used to analyze the characteristics and change trends of the premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases.Results The crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate changes for the 4 major chronic diseases from 2015 to 2020 range from 568.65/100000 to 604.06/100000 and 366.77/100000 to 432.48/100000,respectively.The annual premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases declined by 3.33%averagely from 2015 to 2020(95%CI:-6.25%--0.32%),which might be explained by the declines of the premature death rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=-3.23%,95%CI:-6.32%--0.05%]and cancer(AAPC=-3.58%,95%CI:-6.83%--0.21%).The average decline rate in women(AAPC=-4.19%,95%CI:-7.56%--0.70%)was higher than that in men(AAPC=-2.92%,95%CI:-5.65%--0.11%).Conclusions The premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases showed a downward trend in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020.Men should be considered as a key population in the prevention and control of 4 major chronic diseases,and attention should also be paid to the non-significant declines in the premature death rates of chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes.