农民工留城和返乡意愿影响因素的定量研究

Quantitative Research on the Influencing Factors behind Migrant Workers’Intention to Stay in Cities or Return Home

为判定农民工留城和返乡的影响因素,基于原国家卫计委组织实施的2016年流动人口动态监测调查数据,通过构建随机森林模型,定量分析了个人因素、家庭因素、经济因素、地域因素、工作因素和制度因素对农民工留城和返乡意愿的影响力。研究结果表明:经济因素的影响最强,家庭因素,个人因素、制度因素和地域因素依次次之,工作因素最弱;流入地的住房情况、家庭收支情况、家人随同情况和子女教育情况对农民工的留城和返乡意愿影响很大;家人随同情况中,影响最强的是举家迁徙,然后依次为子女、配偶和父母随同,兄弟姐妹随同没有影响;流入地的地域因素强于流出地的地域因素;制度因素中,医疗保险和养老保险的影响力靠前。研究结论可为政府合理引导农民工流向提供决策支持。

To analyze the factors influencing migrant workers’intention to stay in cities or return home,this study builds a random forest model using the data from the 2016 floating population dynamic monitoring survey organized and implemented by the former National Health and Family Planning Commission.All influencing factors were grouped into six categories,i.e.,individual factors,family factors,economic factors,regional factors,work factors,and institutional factors,for research convenience.The following conclusions were drawn.First,the influence of economic factors is the strongest,followed by family,personal,institutional,regional,and work factors.Second,housing conditions,family income and expenditure,family accompanying condition,and children’s education condition in the destination place have a great influence on the intention of migrant workers to stay in the city or return home.Third,the strongest effect is the migration of the whole family,followed by children,spouses,and parents.However,siblings have no effect on family travel.Fourth,the regional factor of the destination is stronger than that of the outflow places.Finally,the influences of medical insurance and endowment insurance are more significant than those of other institutional factors.These conclusions can provide guidelines for governments to guide the flow of migrant workers.