“碳中和”视域下城市公交线路运行效率模糊专家预测

Fuzzy Expert Prediction of urban Bus Line Operation Efficiency from the Perspective of“Carbon Neutralization”

为响应国家“碳中和”发展战略,为改善城市公交运行效率,以模糊专家系统为基础,建立各指标的模糊集以及模糊规则库,并根据调查数据进行参数标定,建立公交线路运行效率模糊专家预测模型。结合实地采集的公交线路数据,计算路段通行能力、车辆停靠时间、发车频率3个指标,将各指标的数据输入至模糊专家系统,输出各条线路的运行效率以及各指标对线路总运行效率的影响。研究结果表明运用模糊专家系统可以计算公交线路整体及各个路段运行效率以及各指标对运行效率的影响,对5路公交线路的3个关键路段通行能力进行优化后,线路整体运行效率提高15%,对8个车站停靠时间进行优化后,线路整体运行效率提高22%。

In response to the national“carbon neutral”development strategy and in order to improve the operation efficiency of urban public transport,based on the fuzzy expert system,the fuzzy set and fuzzy rule base of each index are established,the parameters are calibrated according to the survey data,and the fuzzy expert prediction model of operation efficiency of public transport lines is established.Combined with the field collected bus line data,calculate the three indicators of section capacity,vehicle parking time and departure frequency,input the data of each indicator into the fuzzy expert system,and output the operation efficiency of each line and the impact of each indicator on the total operation efficiency of the line.The results show that the fuzzy expert system can be used to calculate the overall operation efficiency of the bus line and each section and the impact of each index on the operation efficiency.After optimizing the traffic capacity of three key sections of No.5 bus line,the overall operation efficiency of the line is improved by 15%,and after optimizing the parking time of eight bus stops,the overall operation efficiency of the line is improved by 22%.