基于灰色马尔可夫模型的器材故障预测研究

Prediction of Equipment Fault Based on Grey-Markov Model

器材故障预测是飞机保障工作的一项重要内容。做好故障预测可以提前掌握器材维修信息,有效提高保障效益。根据器材故障特点以及所收集数据,建立了基于灰色马尔可夫模型的器材故障预测模型,并通过实例分析,发现灰色马尔可夫模型能够准确反映数据波动的规律性,大幅提高器材故障时间点的预测精度,满足实际工作需求。

Equipment failure prediction is an important part of aircraft support work.Failure prediction can master equipment maintenance information in advance and effectively improve the benefit of support.According to the equipment fault characteristics and the collected data,an equipment fault prediction model based on grey-markov model was established.Through case analysis,it was found that the grey Markov model could accurately reflect the regularity of data fluctuation,greatly improve the prediction accuracy of equipment fault time points,and meet the actual work requirements.