农业绿色生产的宏观逻辑与实证检验--以农药施用为例

Macroscopic Logic and Empirical Test of Agricultural Green Production——Taking Pesticide Application as an Example

农药减量施用需要从宏观上掌握农户的决策逻辑。选择了12个变量指标分为“禀赋因素”“投入因素”“调节因素”三大类,采用平衡面板数据进行了实证检验,并分北方和南方两大区域做了比较。结果表明:禀赋因素中粮食种植占比、灌溉率每提高1%,施药强度分别降低0.061公斤和增加0.16公斤;经营规模每增加1公顷,施药强度降低8.07公斤。要素投入中城镇化与农药减施存在不显著的协同效应;机械化投入每增加1千瓦时,施药强度增加0.926公斤;可支配收入每增加1000元,农药投入降低0.4公斤,财政支农对施药具有不显著的激励作用。调节性因素中,经营性收入占比提高1%,施药量降低0.197公斤;教育年限增加1年,施药量会增加1.08公斤;农产品价格和农药价格分别对施药量具有不显著的激励和抑制作用。两大区域6个指标对施药量作用方向一致,6个指标作用方向相反,意味着在国家层面上制定减施政策具有一定理论基础,但在执行过程中需要出台因地制宜的实施细则。为此,提出了实现环境治理与收入保障有机统一的政策建议。

The pesticide reduction application needs to master the decision-making logic of farmers from a macro perspective. We selected twelve variables and divided into three categories: endowment factor, input factor, and adjusting factor. The balanced panel data were used for empirical test, and the comparison was made between the northern and southern regions. The results showed that the application intensity decreased by 0.061 kg and increased by 0.16 kg when the proportion of grain planted and the irrigation rate increased by 1%. The application intensity will decrease by 0.538 kg when the operation scale increased 1 mu. In factor input,there was no significant synergistic effect between urbanization and pesticide reduction . For each increase of 1 KWH of mechanized input, the application strength increased by 0.926 kg. For every 1000 yuan increase in disposable income, pesticide input decreased by 0.4 kg. Fiscal support to agriculture had no significant incentive effect on pesticide application. In regulatory factors, the proportion of operating income increased by 1%, and the dosage decreased by 0.197 kg. An increase of one year of education resulted in an increase of 1.08 kg. The price of agricultural products and the price of pesticide had insignificant incentive and inhibition effect on the application quantity respectively. Six indicators in the two regions have the same effect direction on the amount of pesticide application, while six indicators have the opposite effect direction. The above researching results mean that there is a certain theoretical basis for the formulation of pesticide application reduction policies at the national level, but implementation rules should be formulated in accordance with local conditions. Therefore, some policy suggestions are put forward to realize the organic unification of environmental governance and income security.