城市常住人口生育意愿及影响因素分析

Analysis on the Fertility Intention and Its Influencing Factors of Urban Resident Population

近十年来,中国总和生育率远低于更替水平,人口结构性问题突出。本文将生育影响因素分为经济和非经济两方面,对部分南方城市的常住人口生育意愿进行调查分析。结果显示,居民人均生育子女数意愿很低;生育目的从过去的“传宗接代”“养儿防老”等功利性需求逐渐转变为“增加生活乐趣”等情感需求。经济因素和非经济因素对居民的生育意愿的影响都很大。经济因素中,教育消费支出压力是阻碍生育的主要障碍。非经济因素中,职业发展、儿童照料、生育观念、生育支持政策等因素对居民低生育意愿有一定影响。针对低生育意愿的状况,应当加强对居民家庭的经济支持,完善家庭工作平衡政策,并增加托幼服务的供给。

Over the past decade,China's total fertility rate has been far lower than the replacement level.This paper divides the influencing factors of fertility into economic and non-economic aspects,and investigates and analyzes the fertility willingness of permanent residents in some southern cities.The results show that residents'willingness to have children per capita is very low.The purpose of fertility has gradually changed from utilitarian needs such as"inheriting the family line"and"raising children to provide against old age"to emotional needs such as"increasing the fun of life".Both economic and non-economic factors have a great impact on residents'reproductive intention.Among the economic factors,the pressure of educational consumption expenditure is the main obstacle to fertility.Among the non-economic factors,career development,child care,fertility concept,fertility support policy and other factors have a certain impact on residents'fertility intention.In view of the low fertility desire,we should strengthen the economic support for resident families,improve the family work balance policy,and increase the supply of childcare services.