中国区域发展不平衡的历史动态、表现和成因--东西差距和南北差距的视角

Dynamics and Causes of China’s Regional Development Inequality:From the Perspective of East-West and North-South Inequality

基于人口加权变异系数分解方法,本文分析了改革开放以来中国区域发展不平衡的历史动态,研究发现:我国区域发展不平衡程度在1978-1990年快速下降,1990-2003年上升,2003-2019年又再次下降,2013年来的区域发展不平衡程度是改革开放以来最低水平;东西差距自2003年来持续下降,但到2019年东西差距对总体区域差距的贡献仍达46%;南方早在1993年就已实现对北方发展水平的超越,2008年以来南北差距再次快速扩大,但目前南北差距在总体差距中的贡献依然不超过10%。因此,我国区域发展差距主要体现为东中西部差距的结构特征并未发生根本改变。成分分解的结果显示,从产业角度看,北方工业的相对落后是2008年以来南北差距飞速扩大的主要原因;从收入角度看,南北差距扩大主要体现在南方在劳动者收入和企业盈利上的相对领先;从支出角度看,南方在居民消费支出、货物和服务净流出上长期具有优势,2003-2013年北方过度依赖高投资、高积累的发展模式,这一发展模式在2013年后无法持续,进一步推动了南北差距扩大。

Using population weighted coefficient of variation and its decomposition approach,this paper analyses China’s regional development imbalance since the reform and opening up,and find that:China’s regional development imbalance dropped quickly from 1978 to 1990,rose from 1990 to 2003,and declined again from 2003 to 2019,regional imbalance level since 2013 is the lowest ever since the reform and opening up.East-West inequality has been declining since 2003,but in 2019 it still accounts for 46%of overall regional inequality.South region has surpassed the north since 1993 in terms of per capita GDP,and the South-North inequality expanded again after 2008,and there is still no sign of stabilization till 2019.However currently the South-North inequality only contributes no more than 10%to the overall regional inequality,therefore the East-West inequality remains to be the main source of regional inequality of China.From an output point of view,the South-North inequality expanded mainly due to the relative weak performance of northern industry.From a distribution point of view,the South-North inequality expansion is mainly reflected in the relative stronger advantage in labor income and corporate profit in the South;From an expenditure point of view,the South has long term advantages in consumer expenditures and net outflow of goods and services,whereas the North overly relied on the development model of high investment and high accumulation,this model could not be sustained after 2013,which further raised the South-North gap.