区域经济—科技创新—物流产业耦合协调发展的时空演化研究

Research on the Spatio-temporal Evolution of the Coupling and Coordinative Development of Regional Economy,Technological Innovation and Logistics Industry

基于2011—2018年中国31个省份面板数据,构建区域经济、科技创新和物流产业三系统耦合协调发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法测算出三个子系统及综合发展指数,采用耦合协调模型计算三系统耦合协调度并分析其时空演化特征,结合探索性空间分析法分析其空间相关性,借助灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2019—2025年中国耦合协调水平。结果显示:中国区域经济—科技创新—物流产业三个子系统指数与综合评价指数呈波动上升趋势,且存在同向性;三系统耦合度高,但耦合协调水平处于较低水平,且存在空间差异性,耦合协调水平由高到低依次为东部、中部、东北、西部,随着时间推移,耦合协调水平差距扩大;三系统耦合协调水平呈现空间正向相关关系,且空间集聚特征不断增强;预测2019—2025年中国耦合协调度缓慢增长,预计到2025年中国整体三系统耦合协调水平接近步入勉强协调阶段。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018,construct the evaluation index system of coupling and coordinated development of regional economy,technological innovation and logistics industry.Calculate the three subsystems and comprehensive development index by using entropy weight method.Calculate the coupling and coordination degree of the three systems by using coupling and coordination model and analyze their spatial and temporal evolution characteristics.Combined with exploratory spatial analysis to analyze its spatial correlation,and the national coupling coordination level from 2019 to 2025 is predicted with gray GM(1,1)forecasting model.The results show that:three subsystems index and comprehensive evaluation index of China’s regional economy—technology innovation—logistics industry are fluctuating upward and consistent.The three systems have a high degree of coupling,but the level of coupling and coordination is at a low level,and there are spatial differences.The level of coupling and coordination from high to low is east,central,northeast,and west.As time goes by,the gap in coupling coordination levels widens.The level of system coupling and coordination presents a positive spatial correlation,and the characteristics of spatial agglomeration continue to increase.It is predicted that the degree of coupling and coordination in China will grow slowly from 2019 to 2025.It is expected that,the level of China’s overall three-system coupling and coordination will approach the barely coordination stage by 2025.