摘要
基于2011—2018年中国31个省份面板数据,构建区域经济、科技创新和物流产业三系统耦合协调发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法测算出三个子系统及综合发展指数,采用耦合协调模型计算三系统耦合协调度并分析其时空演化特征,结合探索性空间分析法分析其空间相关性,借助灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2019—2025年中国耦合协调水平。结果显示:中国区域经济—科技创新—物流产业三个子系统指数与综合评价指数呈波动上升趋势,且存在同向性;三系统耦合度高,但耦合协调水平处于较低水平,且存在空间差异性,耦合协调水平由高到低依次为东部、中部、东北、西部,随着时间推移,耦合协调水平差距扩大;三系统耦合协调水平呈现空间正向相关关系,且空间集聚特征不断增强;预测2019—2025年中国耦合协调度缓慢增长,预计到2025年中国整体三系统耦合协调水平接近步入勉强协调阶段。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018,construct the evaluation index system of coupling and coordinated development of regional economy,technological innovation and logistics industry.Calculate the three subsystems and comprehensive development index by using entropy weight method.Calculate the coupling and coordination degree of the three systems by using coupling and coordination model and analyze their spatial and temporal evolution characteristics.Combined with exploratory spatial analysis to analyze its spatial correlation,and the national coupling coordination level from 2019 to 2025 is predicted with gray GM(1,1)forecasting model.The results show that:three subsystems index and comprehensive evaluation index of China’s regional economy—technology innovation—logistics industry are fluctuating upward and consistent.The three systems have a high degree of coupling,but the level of coupling and coordination is at a low level,and there are spatial differences.The level of coupling and coordination from high to low is east,central,northeast,and west.As time goes by,the gap in coupling coordination levels widens.The level of system coupling and coordination presents a positive spatial correlation,and the characteristics of spatial agglomeration continue to increase.It is predicted that the degree of coupling and coordination in China will grow slowly from 2019 to 2025.It is expected that,the level of China’s overall three-system coupling and coordination will approach the barely coordination stage by 2025.
作者
李健
张杰
李彦霞
LI Jian;ZHANG Jie;LI Yan-xia(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期24-32,共9页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金研究专项项目“京津冀协同处置重大突发事件机制研究”(20VYJ026)
教育部人文社科规划基金项目“京津冀制造业高质量发展研究”(20YJA630085)
天津市研究生科研创新项目“城市群视角下京津冀绿色竞争力系统协调发展机制研究”(2020YJSS030)。
关键词
区域经济
科技创新
物流产业
耦合协调
时空演化
regional economies
technological innovation
logistics industry
coupling coordination
spatio-temporal evolution