摘要
识别和监测潜在的颠覆性技术,对于企业和国家在发展过程及未来规划中及时调整技术创新战略、规避风险具有重大战略意义。本文阐述颠覆性技术的概念及特征,对比分析颠覆性技术的识别方法,在技术特征和市场特征两个维度下以技术可行性、技术突破性、技术集成性、技术前沿性、技术影响力5个指标构建颠覆性技术评价指标体系,建立基于层次分析法的颠覆性技术识别模型。以高端装备制造业中的工业机器人领域为例,梳理产业技术概况,对产业链上下游具有颠覆性潜力的技术进行识别,分析其可能对产业带来的影响,提出相应的政策建议。
Identifying and monitoring potentially disruptive technologies is of great strategic significance for companies and countries to adjust their technological innovation strategies and avoid risks in the development process and future planning. By expounding the concepts and characteristics of disruptive technologies, comparing and analyzing the identification methods of disruptive technologies, the five dimensions of technological feasibility,technological breakthrough, technological integration, technological frontier, and technological influence are based on the two dimensions of technological characteristics and market characteristics. Tis paper constructs a disruptive technology evaluation index system, and establishes a disruptive technology identifcation model based on the analytic hierarchy process. Take the feld of industrial robots in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry as an example,sort out the overview of industrial technology, identify technologies with disruptive potential in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, analyze their possible impact on the industry, and make policy recommendations.
作者
曹悦
白晨
张英杰
张玄玄
张越
李妙钰
CAO Yue;BAI Chen;ZHANG Yingjie;ZHANG Xuanxuan;ZHANG Yue;LI Miaoyu(Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China,Beijing 100038)
出处
《中国科技资源导刊》
2022年第2期81-92,共12页
China Science & Technology Resources Review
基金
中国科学技术信息研究所创新研究基金青年项目“基于地平线扫描的技术识别方法研究”(QN2021-07)。
关键词
颠覆性技术
技术识别
模型构建
层次分析法
工业机器人
disruptive technology
technology identification
model construction
analytic hierarchy process(AHP)
industrial robots