基于模糊故障树的中空纤维膜分离器可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of hollow-fiber membrane gas separator based on fuzzy fault tree

通过对气体分离的中空纤维膜分离器几何结构、材料特性和工艺分析,确定了封装胶黏剂失效、腐蚀性气体和操作温度过低等12个基本事件,以及密封失败、壳体被腐蚀和膜丝失效等9个中间事件;以膜分离器失效为顶事件,利用故障模式机理和模糊集合理论,建立了模糊故障树模型.设计了基本事件发生概率专家调查表,遴选了10位专家的反馈意见,将三角形模糊数和梯形模糊数相结合,利用相似度聚合法计算获得基本事件的发生概率.通过对故障树模型的定性分析,确定了最小割集和最小径集,并对基本事件的结构重要度进行了排序.基于故障树最小割集的F-VI和RRW的排名计算,确定了重要度最高的最小割集为MC9(有机溶剂蒸汽凝结),重要度最低的最小割集为MC6(膜丝溶胀).通过对模糊故障树模型进行定量分析,经计算得顶事件气体膜分离故障的概率为3.285%,符合经验值.对基本事件进行了结构重要度、概率重要度和临界重要度分析和排序,确定了排名前三的基本事件依次是除雾器故障、操作压力过高、有机凝液致胶黏剂溶解.

Through the analysis of the geometric structure, material characteristics and membrane separation process of the hollow fiber membrane separator, 12 basic events were identified such as failure of packaging adhesive, corrosive gas, and low operating temperature, as well as 9 intermediate events such as seal failure, shell corrosion, membrane filament failure, etc., with membrane separator failure as the top event, using the failure mode mechanism and fuzzy set theory to establish the fuzzy fault tree model of the gas membrane separator. An expert questionnaire for the occurrence of basic events was designed, and feedback from 10 experts was selected, combining the triangular fuzzy number and the trapezoidal fuzzy number, using similarity aggregation method to calculate the occurrence probability of basic events. Through the qualitative analysis of the fault tree model, the minimum cut set and the minimum path set ofthe fault tree were determined, and the structural importance of the basic events was sorted. Based on the ranking calculation of F-VI and RRW of the minimum cut set of the fault tree, it was determined that the minimum cut set with the highest importance was MC9(organic solvent vapor condensation) and the minimum cut set with the lowest importance is MC6(membrane fiber swelling). Through the quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree model, the top event failure probability of the gas membrane separation was calculated to be 3.285%, which accords with the empirical value. The structural importance, probability importance and critical importance of the basic events were analyzed and sorted, and the top three basic events were determined to be defogger failure, excessive operating pressure, and dissolution of the adhesive caused by organic condensate.