技术性贸易壁垒对河南省农产品出口贸易影响的实证研究

Research on Influences of Technical Barriers to Trade on Exports of Agricultural Products--Base on Henan Province

近年我国农产品出口受技术性贸易壁垒影响严重。本文以河南省为例,对出口农产品种类,所面临的技术性贸易壁垒情况和原因进行分析。在此基础上,引入贸易引力模型,以河南省主要出口农产品类别蔬菜为例,选取1999年至2019年我国对美国、日本、欧盟蔬菜出口额,蔬菜农药残留限量标准数量及相关控制变量,实证检验影响河南省农产品出口的第一大技术性贸易壁垒类型--农药残留限量技术标准对蔬菜出口的贸易效应。结果表明:1.进口国蔬菜农药残留限量标准严格对蔬菜出口具有负向作用,标准数量每增加1%,蔬菜出口值将下降0.318%,而中国蔬菜农药残留限量标准严格对蔬菜出口具有积极作用。2.日本肯定列表制度短期对我国蔬菜出口具有抑制作用,但是长期具有促进作用。本文在实证分析的基础上,前瞻性提出政策制定建议和应对措施。

Technical Barriers to Trade have an important impact on exports of agricultural products of China in recent years.Taking Henan province for example,this paper analyses the varieties of exports of agricultural products,the technical barriers and the deep-seated reasons.On the basis,the paper via a gravity model to measure the impact of the number of limits on pesticide residue of vegetables which has the most inmpact on exports of agricultural products of Henan Province,and the cross-sectional data of exports of agricultural products of China to Japan,the United States and the European Union during 1999-2019 years to measure the impact of technical barriers to exports of agricultural products.The analysis of data showed that the limits on pesticide residue of vegetables of these countries had a negative impact on China exports of agricultural products.The limits on pesticide residue for every increase of 1%,the volume of exports of agricultural products will decrease 0.318%.On the contrary,the limits on pesticide residue of vegetables of China had a positive impact on exports of agricultural products.Yet the positive list system of Japan had a negative impact on exports of vegetables products in a short term,but had a positive impact in long term.On the basis of empirical analysis,the paper puts forwards some countermeasures.