农业经济系统与水资源环境系统耦合协调关系研究——以湖南省为例

Research on the coupling coordinating relationship between agricultural economy system and water resources environment system:a case study of Hunan Province

该文综合考虑农业经济-水资源环境复合关系,构建了由农业投入、产出、现代化以及水资源压力、状态、管理六个维度、19个指标组成的农业经济和水资源环境系统评价指标体系,并基于客观组合赋权法确定指标权重,采用耦合协调度和障碍度诊断模型识别两系统耦合协调程度及其主要影响因素.以湖南省为例,分析其2008—2019年农业经济和水资源环境耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征与影响因素.结果表明,湖南省农业经济综合发展指数逐年增大,水资源环境系统综合发展指数呈较剧烈波动状态;各市州两系统的耦合协调度(0.362~0.947)呈显著的逐年上升趋势,到2019年处于协调发展阶段(0.797~0.947);两系统耦合协调度水平呈现由“中部>北部>南部”向“南部>中部>北部”变化趋势;农业投入和产出是影响各市州耦合协调度的主要因素.提出了促进湖南省各市州农业经济和水资源环境系统耦合协调发展的对策.

Considering the complex relationship between agricultural economy and water resources environment,an evaluation index system of agricultural economy and water resources environment was constructed,which consists of 19 indexes from six dimensions including agricultural input,output,modernization and water resources pressure,state and management.The index weight is determined based on the objective combination weighting method,and the coupling coordination degree and obstacle diagnosis model are used to identify the coupling coordination degree of the two systems and its main influencing factors.Taking Hunan Province as an example,the coupling and coordination relationship is investigated between agricultural economy and water resources environment from 2008 to 2019,along with its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors.The results show that the comprehensive development index of agricultural economy in Hunan Province increases year by year,and the comprehensive development index of water resources and environment system fluctuates violently.The coupling coordination degree of each city and state system(0.362~0.947)exhibited a significant upward trend year by year,and it was in the coordinated development stage(0.797~0.947)by 2019.The coupling coordination degree of the two systems displayed a trend from“central>northern>southern”to“southern>central>northern”.Agricultural input and output are the main factors affecting the coupling coordination degree of cities and states.The countermeasures to promote the coupling and coordinated development of agricultural economy and water resources and environment system in cities and states of Hunan Province are proposed.