尾矿库溃坝灾害风险分级评估的加权云模型研究

Reseach on weighted cloud model for classification assessment of tailings dam break disaster risk

为了实现尾矿库坝灾害风险的准确分析,提出了一种尾矿库溃坝灾害风险分级评估的加权云模型。首先基于文献计量法以及相关分级标准构建了尾矿库溃坝灾害风险分级指标体系;然后基于博弈论确定了频次法和投影寻踪算法的组合权重;最后采用云模型来表述各风险等级之间的模糊性和不确定性,并结合基于博弈论的组合权重确定了尾矿库溃坝灾害风险等级的综合隶属度,再采用9组尾矿库实例进行验证加权云模型的评估结果。结果显示,加权云模型评估的9组尾矿库样本结果与实际相符,表明模型具有较高的预测精度,可以为尾矿库溃坝灾害风险等级评估提供可靠的依据。

In order to realize the accurate analysis of tailings dam disaster risk,a weighted cloud model for grading assessment of tailings dam disaster risk is proposed.Firstly,based on the bibliometric method and related classification standards,the classification index system of tailings dam failure disaster risk is constructed.Then the combination weights of frequency method and projection pursuit algorithm are determined based on game theory.Finally,the cloud model is used to describe the fuzziness and uncertainty of each risk level,and the comprehensive membership degree of tailings dam-break disaster risk level is determined by combining the combination weight based on game theory.Then,nine groups of tailings examples are used to verify the evaluation results of the weighted cloud model.The results show that the nine groups of tailings samples evaluated by the weighted cloud model are consistent with the actual results.The model has high prediction accuracy,which can provide a reliable basis for the risk assessment of tailings dam failure.