基于ISM的历史街区消防安全韧性影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors of fire safety resilience in historic blocks based on ISM

为促进历史街区韧性建设,从火灾适灾能力角度研究历史街区的消防安全韧性。首先,基于WSR方法论,从历史街区区域特征、设施、经济、组织管理及社会等五个方面确定了31个消防安全韧性指标因素。其次,建立7层3级的ISM模型,分析了各因素之间的影响关系及层级结构。最后,运用熵权法确定了消防安全韧性指标因素权重。结果表明,历史街区消防安全韧性的根本影响因素为基础设施稳定性及部门履责情况,直接影响因素为应急救援设施完善情况、经济稳定性和个人灭火自救能力;二级指标因素重要度排序为:区域特征>设施因素>组织管理>经济因素>社会因素;三级指标因素的重要度和ISM层级模型分析得出的结果一致。

In order to promote the resilience construction of historical blocks,the fire safety resilience of historic districts is studied from the perspective of fire resilience.First,based on the WSR system methodology,31 fire safety resilience index factors are determined from five aspects of historical districts,including regional characteristics,facilities,economy,organization management,and society.Secondly,a 7-layer and 3-level ISM model is established to analyze the influence relationship and hierarchical structure among the factors.Finally,the entropy method is used to determine the weight of the fire safety resilience index factors.The results show that the fundamental influencing factors of fire safety resilience in historic blocks are infrastructure stability and department performance.The direct influencing factors are the improvement of emergency rescue facilities,economic stability and personal fire fighting and self-rescue ability.The importance of the secondary index factors is ranked as follows:regional characteristics>facility factors>organization management>economic factors>social factors.The importance of the three-level index factors is consistent with the results obtained by the ISM hierarchical model analysis.