近10年中国省际经济差异动态变化特征

Characteristics of dynamic variation of the inter-provincial economic difference in China in recent ten years

本文以大陆 31个省、自治区、直辖市为研究的区域单元、以人均国内生产总值为测度区域经济差异的总体指标 ,从各区域人均GDP的标准差、标准差系数等角度定量测度了 1990～ 2 0 0 0年省际经济差异的总体水平及其变化特征 ,从各区域与全国平均水平的比率的变化、各区域相对发展率的差异等定量测度了省际差异变化的空间结构特征。文章建立了全国国内生产总值增长率与区域人均GDP的标准差之间的回归模型 ,据此确定了省际差异警戒水平。

This paper explores the methods for studying regional economic difference in the aspects of research unit's being decided, measurement index's being chosen, and measurement means' being selected. It also points out the advantages and disadvantages of each method by taking 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China's Mainland as regional study unit,and per capita GDP as total index to measure regional economic difference.It quantitatively measures the overall leveland the characteristics of dynamic variation of the recent inter-provincialeconomic difference from the angles of standard deviation , and standard deviation coefficientof every region's per capita GDP.The absolute difference rose linearly and the relative difference wavelike. The frequencies distribution of every region's per capita GDP is a kind of positively slanting distribution, deviating normal distribution greatly. Every year, only a few provinces' per capita GDP is above the average level of the whole country. It also quantitatively measures the characteristics of spatial structure of this differential variation from the angles of the ratio of every region to the whole nation, and the difference of every region's relative development rate. Coastal areas are developing faster, in contrast with the inland areas, especially some western regions. There is a narrowing tendency in economic difference among coastal provinces, but in contrast there is a widening tendency among the east, the middle and the west. The spatial structure of the three belts was strengthened in the 1990s. The regression model between the growth rate of whole nation's GDP and the standard deviation of every region's per capita GDP was set up and according to this model the warn standard of inter-provincial economic difference was probed in this paper. Theoretically, the standard deviation of per capita GDP in 1994 had already broken warn standard. Moderately balancing policies should be carried out right then, so as to control the widening difference and to make each region develop harmoniously.