资金供求关系视角下的财务困境预警研究

Research on Early Warning of Financial Distress from the Perspective of the Relationship between Capital Supply and Demand

已有财务困境预警研究缺乏对财务困境与预警因子之间内在逻辑的系统分析,且存在经济活动分类不当、财务概念严重混淆的理论缺陷,造成资本效率与财务风险信息扭曲。基于对财务风险核心内涵的剖析和对资金供求关系失衡的财务困境逻辑的阐释,研究从资金存量和资金流量层面重构财务指标,矫正信息偏差,建立财务困境前三年单期和三年期连续的Logistic预警模型。实证结果表明,利用新指标体系建立的三年期连续的预警模型具有较高预测精度,资本杠杆、总资金回报率、经营活动营运资金占用水平、经营活动营运资金节约额等指标在识别财务风险方面发挥了显著作用。

The existing research on the early warning of financial distress lack a systematic analysis on the internal logic between financial distress and early-warning factors,and have theoretical flaws including improper classification of economic activities and serious confusion in financial concepts,causing information distortions in capital efficiency and financial risks.Based on the analysis on the core connotation of financial risks and the interpretation of the financial distress logic of imbalance between capital supply and demand,we reconstruct the financial indicators from the level of stock and flow,aiming to correct information deviations.We establish a single-term and three-year continuous logistic early-warning model for the first three years of financial distress.The results show that the three-year continuous early-warning model established by the new indicators system has higher prediction accuracy.Indicators such as capital leverage,rate of return on total capital,and occupation level of and savings of working capital in operating activities play a significant role in identifying financial risks.