灰色GM(1,1)模型在妇幼信息统计指标预测中的应用

Application of grey prediction model on maternal and child health indicators

目的妇幼卫生信息统计指标体系包括孕产妇及儿童健康服务管理绝对数指标和相对数指标,其数据特征比较适合构建灰色GM(1,1)模型。方法以广东省2010—2019年妇幼卫生监测中神经管畸形的数据使用R语言中示例灰色GM(1,1)模型的实现。结果利用灰色模型拟合广东省2010—2019年神经管畸形的发生率有较高的精度。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型能够在未来的预测研究中发挥作用。

Objective The statistical index system of maternal and child health information includes the absolute number and relative index from maternal and child health service activity, and its data characteristics are suitable for the construction of grey GM(1,1) model. Methods The data of neural tube malformation in maternal and children health monitoring in Guangdong province from 2010 to 2019 were used to implement the grey GM(1,1) model with R language. Results The gray model has a high accuracy in fitting the incidence of neural tube malformations in Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2019.Conclusion Grey GM(1,1) model plays a role in future prediction research.