经济制度质量对出口二元边际的影响研究——基于中国制度有效性和稳定性视角

An Empirical Study of Economic Institution Quality on the Dual Margin of Export—Based on the Perspective of Chinese Institutional Validity and Stability

基于制度有效性和稳定性视角,将经济制度纳入异质性企业理论模型,推导出经济制度对出口二元边际的影响机理。在此基础上,采用2002—2019年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口贸易数据,将中国出口增长进行结构性分解,并实证检验经济制度对出口二元边际的影响。研究表明,在制度有效性一定的条件下,制度稳定性越强,越利于中国出口二元边际扩张。同时,制度稳定性也是制度有效性影响中国出口二元边际的门槛条件,只有制度稳定性保持在一定的门槛值之内,制度有效性提升才能显著促进拓展边际扩张、阻碍集约边际下降。因此,为实现出口贸易持续稳定增长,需要通过不断深化改革提升经济制度质量,同时在改革过程中也要注意维护制度环境的稳定性,以此保证制度质量的循序渐进和前后衔接。

Based on the perspective of institutional validity and stability,this paper integrates economic institution into heterogeneous enterprise theoretical model to derive its impact on the dual margin of exports.Using China’s export trade data to countries along the Belt the Road from 2002 to 2019,we decompose China’s export growth and test the impact of its economic institution on the dual margin of exports.The results show that under the conditions given by institutional validity,the stronger institutional stability,the more it promotes the dual margin of exports.Meanwhile,the institutional stability is the threshold condition of institutional validity affecting the dual margin of exports.Only when institutional stability remains within a specific threshold can institutional validity significantly promote the expansion of extensive margin and hinder the decline of the intensive margin.Therefore,in order to realize the sustained and stable growth of export trade,we need to continuously deepen the reform to improve the quality of economic system.At the same time,we should also pay attention to maintaining the stability of institutional environment in the process of reform,so as to ensure the gradual and orderly connection of institutional quality.