拜登涉台政策的“同盟联动”现象:机制、举证与影响

“Alliance Linkage”in Biden’s Taiwan Policy:Mechanism,Cases and Influences

拜登执政后,为强化“台湾牌”的战略效果,联合欧亚主要盟友共同介入和干涉台湾问题,形成涉台政策的“同盟联动”现象。将美国在不对称同盟中的议题设置设定为前置条件,选取盟友对美国“价值观外交”的支持度与盟友对中国意识形态的偏见度为两个关键因素,构建“同盟联动”现象的理论机制。以拜登近期联合其主要盟友共同介入台海局势为例,分析发现两个关键因素会影响盟友对涉台政策的共识程度,最终产生涉台政策的“同盟联动”现象。“同盟联动”现象会使美国对“一个中国政策”的空洞化从国内层面上升至国际层面,也会扩大“台独”国际化空间,增大中国大陆反“台独”难度。中国大陆应该保持战略耐心,针对不同对华态度的美国盟友采取差异化政策,尽可能切断和削弱美国与盟友之间的联动及效果。

To reinforce the strategic efficacy of the Taiwan card,Biden has brought the US allies in Europe and Asia to intervene in the Taiwan question since his inauguration,unfolding a phenomenon of“alliance linkage”in the US Taiwan policy.This article sets America’s agenda setting as the precondition,extracts two factors of the US allies’support for Biden’s ideological diplomacy and their ideological bias on China,so as to construct a theoretical mechanism of“alliance linkage”.By taking Biden administration’s recent joint intervention in the Taiwan Strait situation with its main allies as an example,this article finds that the two factors would influence allies’consensus on intervening in the Taiwan question,leading thus to the the phenomenon of“alliance linkage”.The“alliance linkage”would promote the US’s hollowing of“One China Policy”from the domestic level to the international level,expand the internationalization of“Taiwan independence”,and increase the difficulty for the Chinese mainland to oppose“Taiwan independence”.The Chinese mainland should maintain strategic patience and adopt differentiated policies for US allies who are different in attitude towards China,so as to cut off and weaken the linkage effect between the United States and its allies.