京津冀工业碳排放时空演化特征及影响因素

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

该文利用京津冀13座城市2000-2015年工业发展和能源消耗等相关数据,采用ArcGIS空间分析、空间计量模型等方法,分析京津冀工业及工业行业碳排放的时空演化特征,剖析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000-2015年京津冀工业碳排放持续增大,空间格局由“中部低、四周高”向“高低值相间分布”转变,空间差异逐步扩大。(2)高碳和低碳行业碳排放增减幅度差异较大,行业间碳排放差异显著;中碳行业碳排放增减幅度趋同,行业间碳排放量差异较小;不同工业行业碳排放空间格局差异显著。(3)能源消耗强度、工业化水平和能源消费结构与京津冀工业碳排放呈显著正相关,生产力水平、工业研发投入、对外开放水平与工业碳排放呈显著负相关。重工业化水平2000年与工业碳排放关系不显著,2015年呈显著正相关。

Based on the data of carbon emission of industrial power and industrial energy consumption of 13 cities in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2000 to 2015,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions of industries and sub industries were analyzed by using ArcGIS spatial analysis and spatial econometric model,and the influencing factors were analyzed.The results show that the spatial distribution of“high carbon emission”and“low carbon emission”gradually increased from“high”to“low”in 2015.From 2000 to 2015,there was a big difference in the increase and decrease of carbon emissions among industries in high and low carbon emission industries,with significant differences among industries;the increase and decrease of carbon emissions in medium carbon emission industries were similar,and the differences in carbon emissions among industries were small.The spatial pattern of high and low value among industries in high,medium and low carbon emission industries was significantly different.Energy consumption intensity,industrialization level and industrial carbon emissions are positively correlated;opening up level,industrial R&D investment,productivity level,energy consumption structure and industrial carbon emissions are significantly negatively correlated;heavy industry level and industrial carbon emissions change from uncorrelated to significantly positive correlated.