中国农业碳排放强度空间特征及溢出效应分析

Analysis of Spatial Characteristics and Spillover Effects of Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity in China

探究中国农业碳排放强度空间特征及溢出效应,可为深化农业供给侧结构性改革并加强区域间低碳技术共享,早日实现农业碳减排目标提供理论参考。该文基于2001-2018年中国省级面板数据,分析农业碳排放强度空间特征,进而运用空间计量模型探究中国农业碳排放强度空间溢出效应及驱动因素。结果显示:中国省域农业碳排放强度呈现不断下降的趋势,但不同省份下降的速度存在明显的异质性;2001-2018年中国农业碳排放强度的空间依赖性有增强的趋势,空间溢出效应凸显。其中,邻近地区的城镇化发展水平、农业种植规模和农户受教育程度都有助于降低本地区的农业碳排放强度,而邻近地区的农业产业结构、农作物受灾严重程度与本地区的农业碳排放强度存在正相关关系。因此,各地区在实现低碳化的路径中应充分挖掘区域碳减排的积极因素并有效抑制消极因素。同时,加强区域间协同合作,借助农业生产中的效仿效应,共同实现区域协同减排的双赢局面。

Exploring the spatial characteristics and spillover effects of agricultural carbon emission intensity in China can provide theoretical references for deepening the structural reform on the supply side of agriculture and strengthening the sharing of low-carbon technologies among regions to achieve the goal of agricultural carbon emission reduction at an early date.Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2001-2018,this paper analyzed the spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emission intensity,and then used a spatial econometric model to explore the spatial spillover effects and driving factors of agricultural carbon emission intensity in China.The results showed that the provincial agricultural carbon emission intensity in China showed a decreasing trend,and there was obvious heterogeneity in the magnitude of the decrease in different provinces.The spatial dependence of agricultural carbon emission intensity in China tended to increased from 2001 to 2018,and the spatial spillover effect was highlighted.Among them,the level of urbanization development,the scale of agricultural cultivation and the education level of farmers in the neighboring areas all contributed to the reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity in the region,while the agricultural industry structure and the severity of crop damage in the neighboring areas had a positive relationship with the agricultural carbon emission intensity in the region.Therefore,each region should fully explore the positive factors of regional carbon emission reduction and effectively suppress the negative factors in the path of achieving decarbonization.At the same time,each region should strengthen inter-regional cooperation in order to achieve a win-win situation of regional synergy in emission reduction through the emulation effect in agricultural production.