长三角地区人口密度对经济增长的贡献测度

Measurement on the Contribution of Population Density to Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta

文章以1990—2019年长三角地区“三省一市”的面板数据,采用扩展柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分别基于人口数量和人口质量测算人口密度对经济增长的贡献率。研究发现:人口密度对经济增长的平均贡献率仅为11.24%,远低于科技进步的贡献率以及资本投入的贡献率;人口密度对经济增长的贡献主要通过释放人口数量红利和人口质量红利实现,但人口数量红利贡献率较低;人口密度对经济增长的贡献率在2009年以后呈下降趋势;上海与浙江的人口质量红利贡献率与人口质量现状不匹配。

Based on the panel data of“three provinces and one city”in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2019, this paper uses the extended Cobb-Douglas production function to estimate the contribution rate of population density to economic growth from population quantity and population quality, respectively. The results show that the average contribution rate of population density to economic growth is only 11.24%, which is much lower than the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress and capital investment, that the contribution of population density to economic growth is mainly realized through releasing population quantity dividend and population quality dividend, but the contribution rate of population quantity dividend is lower, that the contribution rate of population density to economic growth showed a decreasing trend after 2009, and that the contribution rate of population quality dividend in Shanghai and Zhejiang is not matched with the current situation of population quality.