固定上网电价制度与电力市场化相适应吗?——以我国风电产业为例

Is Feed-in Tariff Compatible with Electricity Marketization?——Taking China s Wind Power Industry as an Example

电力市场化是中国可再生能源电力必须面对的体制性改革,探究固定上网电价制度这一规制模式与电力市场化的适应性对能源产业的绿色结构转型具有重要意义。首先,构建可再生能源电力厂商与煤电厂商间的古诺博弈模型,从理论上分析可再生能源固定上网电价制度与电力市场化适应性的作用机理。其次,基于中国可再生能源电力实行固定上网电价规制模式最典型的风电产业30个省区的面板数据,并采用随机效应Probit与Tobit面板模型,使用M-C方法剔除个体影响,实证检验可再生能源固定上网电价规制模式与电力市场化的适应性。结果表明:固定上网电价制度显著提升了近10年来中国各地区的弃风概率与弃风程度,是诱发风电产业背离电力市场供求约束的重要因素。原因在于固定上网电价规制模式下,规制者难以对可再生能源发电成本变化做出及时准确的反应。因此,打破中国可再生能源电力现有的固定上网电价规制模式,对可再生能源电力设置消纳配额比例,有利于可再生能源电力与市场化之间的融合。

Electricity marketization is an institutional reform that China s renewable energy electricity must face.It is of great significance to explore the adaptability of FIT price regulation and electricity marketization for the green structural transformation of energy industry.Cournot game model between renewable energy electricity and coal power manufacturers was constructed to analyze the mechanism of FIT price regulation of renewable energy electricity and the adaptability of electricity market.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and regions in the wind power industry where FIT mode of renewable energy electricity is most typical in China,random effect Probit and Tobit panel models were adopted,and the M-C method was used to eliminate individual influences to test the adaptability of FIT mode of renewable energy electricity and electricity marketization.The empirical results show that FIT has significantly increased the probability and degree of wind abandoning in various regions of China in recent 10 years,which is an important factor inducing wind power industry to deviate from the supply and demand constraints of the electricity market.The reason is that it is difficult for regulators to make timely and accurate responses to the changes of renewable energy power generation costs under FIT mode.To break the existing FIT mode of renewable energy electricity in China and set consumption quota ratio of renewable energy electricity is conducive to the integration of renewable energy electricity and electricity marketization.