中美贸易摩擦对中国企业投资的影响:来自A股上市公司的实证证据

Effects of US-China Trade Friction on Chinese Firm Investment:Empirical Evidence from A-Share Listed Firms

以中美贸易摩擦为研究背景,通过整合美国对华征税清单、中国海关贸易数据库与中国上市公司季度财务数据,构建企业层面受美国对华出口品加征关税的影响指标,运用双重差分模型研究2016-2019年中国A股上市公司在中美贸易摩擦前后投资行为的变化。结果显示:受美国第一份对华征税清单影响越大的企业会显著降低其新增投资与投资存量;而在第二份对华征税清单发布后,受两份征税清单影响越大的企业没有显著降低其新增投资,且其投资存量反而显著提高。这意味着中美贸易摩擦带来了短期企业投资的下滑,但中期对企业投资的影响则刚好相反。为更好地理解影响渠道,直接探究贸易壁垒上升带来的市场规模变化发现,中美贸易摩擦发生后,原来销往境外的产品转为内销,对企业总销售收入的影响不大,因而中美贸易摩擦对中国企业投资的影响主要通过贸易政策不确定性这一渠道发挥作用,这也从侧面印证了“国内国际双循环”政策的重要性。

Based on the recent US-China trade friction,this paper integrates the US tariff list on Chinese products,the Chinese customs data and the quarterly financial data of Chinese listed companies,and constructs firm-level indicator of the impact of US tariff increase to study corporate investment behaviors of Chinese A-share listed companies before and after the US-China trade friction.This paper uses the difference-in-difference model and finds that companies that are more affected by the first list of US tariff increase will significantly reduce their new investment and investment stock;but after the release of the second list of tariff increase,the companies with the greater impact of tariff increase did not significantly reduce their new investment,and their investment stock increased significantly.This means that the US-China trade friction has led to a decline in corporate investment in the short term,but the impact on investment is the opposite in the medium run.In order to explain the mechanism,we directly explore the impact on market scale due to the rise of trade barriers,and find that after the US-China trade friction,products originally sold abroad are sold domestically,which has little effect on the company s total sales revenue.Therefore,the impact of the US-China trade friction on Chinese firms investment mainly comes through the channel of trade policy uncertainty.The results also confirm the importance of a“dual circulation”development pattern.