基于多元线性回归的物流需求预测分析——以安徽省为例

Logistics Demand Forecasting Analysis Based on Multiple Linear Regression:Taking Anhui Province as an Example

基于多元线性回归思想,选取安徽省2000-2019年货运量、三次产业总值、固定资产投资总额、社会消费品零售总额、进出口总额等统计数据,运用EVIEWS9.0软件进行多重共线性检验、异方差检验、自相关检验与经济意义检验,旨在构建最佳的物流需求预测模型.结果表明,第二产业与第三产业发展对安徽省物流需求影响最为显著,前者正相关,后者负相关.总体上看,模型的预测精度较好,尤其是对近期的预测精度较高,可以使用该模型对安徽省物流需求进行预测分析.

Based on the idea of multiple linear regression,this paper selected the statistical data of goods transportation volume,total value of three industries,total investment in fixed assets,total retail sales of social consumer goods,total import and export in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2019,and used eviews 9.0 software to carry out multiple collinearity test,heteroscedasticity test,autocorrelation test and economic significance test,in order to build the best logistics demand prediction model.The results showed that the development of secondary industry and tertiary industry has the most significant impact on the logistics demand of Anhui Province,the former is positively correlated with the logistics demand of Anhui Province,and the latter is negatively correlated with the logistics demand of Anhui Province.Generally speaking,the prediction accuracy of the model is good,especially for the recent prediction accuracy.The model can be used to predict and analyze the logistics demand of Anhui Province.