中国夜间旅游安全事件的时空异质特征及其引致因素解析

Spatial Heterogeneity and the Influencing Factors of Night Tourism Safety Incidents in China

利用季节性强度指数、核密度分析、标准差椭圆等方法,揭示2010—2019年中国夜间旅游安全事件的时空异质特征,并借助空间面板数据解析引致夜间旅游安全事件的关键因素。结果表明:(1)夜间旅游安全事件的发生时间呈现整体波动性与分布集中性,季节性差异较小,7月、8月是夜间旅游安全事件的高发期。(2)夜间旅游安全事件呈现明显的空间分布差异。高频区、较高频区呈扩大态势,中频区、低频区与较低频区呈缩减态势;事件发生的热点与次热点区域呈扩大趋势。(3)游客接待压力、社会环境压力对我国夜间旅游安全事件的产生具有显著催化作用,而产业发展响应则能够有效抑制夜间旅游安全事件的发生。

By employing kernel density analysis,center of gravity analysis,and standard deviation ellipse and so on,the paper revealed the spatial distribution characteristics of night tourism safety incidents in China.With the help of space panel model,the paper explored the key factors leading to the night tourism safety incidents.The results show that:(1)The occurrence time of night tourism safety incidents presented the overall volatility and concentration of distribution,there was less seasonal variation in night tourism safety incidents,July and August are the two months with the highest accidents.(2)There were obvious spatial distribution differences of night tourism safety incidents:the high frequency and sub-high frequency areas of night tourism safety incidents shown an expanding trend while medium frequency,low frequency and sub-low frequency areas shown a decreasing trend.The hotspots and sub-hotspots of night tourism safety incidents were expanding.(3)Visitor reception pressure,social environment pressure has significant positive influence on occurrence of night tourism safety incidents,but industry development response can effectively restrain the night tourism safety incidents.