新冠疫情下重庆市城市轨道交通运营风险评价

Urban Rail Transit Operation Risk Assessment in Chongqing under COVID-19

构建了基于经营风险、应急管理风险、乘客风险、公共安全管理风险等的风险评价体系,建立贝叶斯网络模型对新冠疫情下重庆市城市轨道交通运营风险进行了正向、逆向推理,计算了风险节点之间的逆向关联度;对新冠疫情下重庆市城市轨道交通运营风险进行了评价。结果表明:在疫情中后期,由新冠疫情引起的重庆市城市轨道交通运营总风险Z为一般风险;当Z处于高风险的概率P(Z|_(Z=high))较大时,经营风险、应急管理风险为主要风险;当P(Z|_(Z=high))=0%→100%时,4种风险中经营风险对Z的影响最大。

A risk assessment system was constructed based on four major risks:operation risk,emergency management risk,passenger risk and public safety management risk.The Bayesian network model was used to carry out forward and reverse inference on the risks of urban rail transit operation in Chongqing under COVID-19,and the reverse correlation between risk nodes was calculated.The risk of urban rail transit operation in Chongqing under COVID-19 was evaluated.The results show that:in the middle and later stage of COVID-19,the overall risk Z of urban rail transit operation in Chongqing is at a general level;when Z is at high risk and the probability P(Z|_(Z=high))is large,operation risk and emergency management risk are the main risks;when P(Z|_(Z=high))increases from 0%to 100%,operation risk has the greatest impact on Z among the four risks.