后苏联空间武装冲突浅析

An Analysis of the Armed Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space

苏联解体后,后苏联空间的阿布哈兹—南奥塞梯、德涅斯特河沿岸地区、纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫和顿巴斯爆发了一系列武装冲突。这些武装冲突深刻揭示了历史上俄国的民族矛盾和边界划分给独立后的原苏联加盟共和国带来的巨大安全隐患。俄罗斯、欧盟和以美国为首的北约,以及周边国家纷纷卷入冲突,对地区局势和国际关系产生了重要影响。未来一段时间,纳卡冲突将处于动态稳定状态;德涅斯特河沿岸地区与阿布哈兹—南奥塞梯冲突仍将处于冻结状态。顿巴斯冲突存在很大不确定性:通过承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国独立,俄罗斯把顿巴斯变成了第二个阿布哈兹—南奥塞梯,利用对德涅斯特河沿岸地区和顿巴斯地区的军事控制以及与白俄罗斯的紧密关系,从东、西和北部对乌克兰构成包围态势,同时利用在纳卡尔诺—卡拉巴赫与阿布哈兹—南奥塞梯的驻军维持在高加索地区的影响力,在欧亚大陆地缘政治博弈中谋求国家利益最大化。

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union,armed conflicts broke out in Abkhazia-South Ossetia,Transnistria,Nagorno-Karabakh and Donbass in the post-Soviet space,which profoundly revealed the huge security risks brought about by Russia’s national contradictions and border division to the former Soviet republics after independence. Russia,the European Union,NATO headed by the United States,and neighboring countries have been involved in the conflict,which has had an important impact on the regional situation and international relations. For some time to come,the Naqqa conflict will be in a dynamic and stable state;transnistria conflict with Abkhazia and South Ossetia will remain in a frozen state. The conflict in the Donbass is highly uncertain. Russia has transformed the Donbass into a second Abkhazia and South Ossetia by recognizing the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. And meanwhile,Russia uses the military control of Transnistria and Donbass and close ties with Belarus to encircle Ukraine from the east,west and north,and utilizes garrisons in Naka and Abkhazia and South Ossetia to maintain influence in the Caucasus so as to maximize national interests in the geopolitical game of Eurasia.