基于K折验证的配电网故障转供可靠性评估研究

Research on Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Fault Transfer Based on K-fold Verification

针对现阶段配网故障后快速、合理地拟定负荷转供措施的要求,介绍了一种基于K折验证的配网故障转供可靠性评估方案。根据配网多种供电方式,按照停电前后的能量平衡方程建立负荷转供效果评估指标。以损失功率最小为前提,考虑在运设备的运行状态、自身特性和外部环境等多因素,构建基于多种因素的故障转供评估模型的等式和不等式约束条件。采用基于K折验证数据处理方法,对历史数据进行充分的预前训练,完成配网转供关键约束参数的拟合,便于与后续可能出现的故障信息相比对,可最大限度地减少转供计划的准备时间。调度人员可根据比对结果拟定稳妥的转供措施,并对应选取转供路径。对实际运行方式的安排和检修计划的调整有一定的参考价值。

According to the requirements of quickly and reasonably formulating load transfer measures after distribution network failure at this stage,a reliability evaluation scheme for fault transfer based on K-fold verification was introduced. Square up various power supply modes,according to the energy balance equation,the load transfer effect evaluation index was established. Taking the minimum power loss as primise,considering the multiple factors such as operating status,characteristics and the external environment,the equality and inequality constraint conditions of the distribution network fault transfer evaluation model were constructed. The K-fold verification data processing method was adopted to fully pre train the historical data and complete the fitting of key constraint parameters of distribution network transfer,which is convenient to compare with the subsequent possible fault information,and can minimize the preparation time of transfer plan. The dispatcher can draw up reliable transfer measures according to the comparison results and select the transfer path accordingly. It has certain reference value for the arrangement of the actual operation mode and the adjustment.