电力价格市场化的成本影响分析--基于考虑价格异质性的投入产出价格模型

The Effects of Electricity Price Marketization Mechanism on Cost--An Analysis Based on Input-Output Price Model with Price Heterogeneity

本文构建了考虑价格异质性的投入产出价格模型,证明其存在有经济意义的解,然后用于分析电力价格市场化改革对各产业部门生产成本和不同收入群体居民生活成本的影响。基于我国2012年投入产出表,分别模拟分析煤电联动、电价市场化条件下煤炭价格上涨的影响,并基于我国电价市场化政策的具体规定,分别分析电力价格上涨10%和下降15%的影响。结果表明,取消煤电联动、实施电力价格市场化会使得煤炭价格上涨带来更大程度的产业部门生产成本和居民生活成本的增加,但能够解决煤电结构性矛盾;电价的浮动对高耗电产业的生产成本有较大的影响,电价降低确实能够有效降低各产业的生产成本,但对于电力生产而言,电价降低带来的成本下降只能部分抵消电价下降的影响,会减少电力生产企业的盈利空间或使其亏损程度更大。对城镇居民而言,煤炭价格上涨的影响具有明显的累退性,农村不同收入群体受到的影响则基本相等;电价浮动对城镇居民的影响大于对农村居民的影响,二者都具有一定的累进性;当电价降低时,收入水平越高,从电价下降中获得的好处也越大。

This paper constructs an input-output model with price heterogeneity,and proves that the model has non negative solution.Then the model is used to analyze the effects of marketization of electricity price on the production cost of various industries and the living cost of households at different levels of income.Based on the data of 2012 Chinese input-output table,the cost effects of coal price increase,considering the scenarios of coal-electricity price linkage and electricity price marketization,are simulated.According to the rules of the electricity price marketization policy in China,the cost effects of 10%increase and 15%decrease of electricity price are analyzed.The result shows electricity price marketization would increase the industrial production cost and living cost of households more significantly than the policy of coal-electricity price linkage when the coal price goes up.However,the policy of electricity price marketization could resolve the structural contradictions of coal and electricity prices.The fluctuations of electricity price would significantly affect the costs of energy-intensive industries,and the decrease of electricity price could lower the costs of industries effectively.Yet for the production of electricity,the decrease of cost originating from electricity price cutting could not cover the decrease of electricity price,which means that the electricity firms would make smaller profits or suffer larger loss.For urban households at various levels of income,the effects of increase of coal price on their living costs are regressive,and for the rural households at various levels of income,the effects are almost the same;the effects of electricity price fluctuation on urban households are greater than those on rural households,and for both kinds of households,the effects are progressive.When electricity price decreases,the households with higher income would benefit more than the households with lower income.