拜登政府时期朝美对话前景与中国角色分析

The Prospect of DPRK-U.S.Dialogue under the Biden administration and China’s Role

拜登政府上台后,美国和朝鲜经过一年多的隔空喊话与政策实践后,两国政策对峙越来越严重。拜登政府聚焦于朝鲜半岛无核化,但朝鲜在目前局面下不仅无意进行无核化,而且还在扩大与提升相关战略武器规模与技术。朝鲜希望拜登政府重视其相关关切,但是拜登政府不仅将对朝外交置于其外交优先议程的次要位置,而且还加大包括人权问题在内的对朝施压。从发展走势看,朝鲜正在通过频繁试射导弹等对拜登政府施压,拜登政府对朝鲜发射导弹等行为也逐渐失去耐心,美朝激烈对峙、半岛局势再度紧张的可能性比较大。中国应通过积极努力避免朝美关系和半岛局势紧张,积极引导朝美进行对话。为此,中国需继续推动朝鲜半岛实质性无核化取得进展,推动美国缓解对朝制裁并照顾朝鲜安全关切,同时在半岛事务上构建相对均衡的对朝、对韩、对美关系。

Since the Biden administration starts,after a year with series of U.S.-DPRK talks and policy implementation,confrontation between the two countries has intensified.The Biden administration focuses on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,but under the current situation,DPRK not only has no intention of denuclearization,but is also expanding and upgrading the scale and technology of its strategic weapons.Judging from the current trend,North Korea is putting pressure on the Biden administration through frequent missile tests,and the Biden administration is gradually losing patience with North Korea’s missile tests.There becomes a fierce confrontation between the U.S.and the DPRK,and the situation on the peninsula is very likely to become tense again.China needs to continue to promote progress towards the substantial denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,pushing the U.S.to ease sanctions on the DPRK and take care of the DPRK’s security concerns,and at the same time build a relatively balanced relationship with the DPRK,the ROK and the United States on the Korean peninsula affairs.