区域贸易政策不确定性对中国多产品企业出口种类决策的影响——基于中国—东盟自由贸易区建立的准自然实验研究

The Impact of Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Export Scope of Chinese Multi-Product Firms——Evidence From China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

区域自由贸易协定大大降低了对外贸易政策的不确定性,对中国多产品企业出口种类产生显著影响。本文利用2001~2013年的中国海关数据库及工业企业数据库,使用双重差分法(DID)分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区建立对中国多产品企业出口种类的影响。研究发现:签订区域贸易协定会大大降低区域贸易政策不确定性,导致中国多产品企业出口种类增加。这一结论在改变样本年份、两期DID等方案后依然稳健。本文从跨国区域合作视角拓展了多产品企业出口产品决策研究范围,为中国高质量实施区域自由贸易战略提供了实证依据。

Regional free trade agreements greatly reduce the trade policy uncertainty and have a significant impact on the export scope of Chinese multi-product firms. This paper uses China Industrial Enterprise Database and China Customs Import and Export Database from 2001 to 2013, and uses the difference-in-difference(DID) method to analyze the impact of the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the export scope of Chinese multi-product firms. The results indicate that the regional trade agreements will greatly reduce the regional trade policy uncertainty, leading to an increase in the export scope of Chinese multi-product firms. The conclusions of this paper are still robust after changing the sample year and two-period DID. From the perspective of transnational regional cooperation, this paper expands the research scope of multi-product firms’ export product decision-making, and provides empirical evidence for China’s high-quality implementation of regional free trade strategy.