概率模型在停电事件预测中的应用研究

Research on application of probabilistic model in blackout prediction

停电及连锁故障(cascading failure)是电网安全的重大威胁,严重影响工业生产与公众生活。针对停电事件预测中的困难,分析了概率模型在这一领域的应用场景。该模型包括了网络拓扑结构的导纳模型与各组件的故障概率模型。导纳模型提供了一种对于电网结构的简洁表示,可用于对故障组件的发现。在此基础上,使用概率模型对停电事件的发生概率进行估计。同时,讨论了在计算总停电概率时对同时故障与隐藏故障的处理方法。在标准总线测试上的实验表明,该方法可以为停电预测与电网结构设计提供有效的参考。

Blackouts and cascading failures pose a grave threat to the security of power grid,which severely disrupt industrial production and public life.Aming at difficulties in blackout prediction,application scenarios of probabilistic model in this area are analyzed.The proposed model consists of admittance model of network topological structure and fault probability model of devices.Admittance model provides a succinct representation of power grid architecture,which can be used for discovery of fault devices.On this basis,probability model is used to estimate the blackout probability.Furthermore,processing method are discussed for simultaneous faults and hidden faults when calculating the total blackout probability.Experimental results on standard bus test demonstrate that the proposed method is of reference value for blackout prediction and the structure design of power grid.