第18届篮球世界杯视角下的中国男篮与世界强队差距审视

A Review of the Gap between Chinese Men’s Basketball Team and the World’s Top Teams from the perspective of the 18th Basketball World Cup

目的:探究世界高水平篮球比赛的制胜因素,分析中国男篮在比赛中失利的原因,以及与世界强队之间的差距,为中国男篮提升竞技实力提供参考。方法:主要使用二分类logistic回归法,以第18届篮球世界杯32支球队,92场比赛中的20项技术指标表现为自变量,比赛结果(获胜、失利)为因变量,构建制胜因素的logistic回归模型。结果:通过logistic回归分析,仅有5项技术指标进入回归模型,分别为后场篮板(β=0.371,P=0.000<0.05)、助攻(β=0.252,P=0.000<0.05)、抢断(β=0.326,P=0.015<0.05)、投篮命中率(β=0.396,P=0.000<0.05)、个人犯规(β=-0.143,P=0.005<0.05),且对比赛结果(获胜、失利)的影响存在显著性差异。结论:1)篮球世界杯比赛的制胜因素为后场篮板、助攻、抢断、投篮命中率和个人犯规;2)与世界强队相比,中国男篮在后场篮板、助攻、投篮命中率3项制胜因素上均落后于世界强队,存在较大的差距,个人犯规与世界强队相比差距不大,而在抢断制胜指标上要高于世界诸多强队,这是中国男篮的一大优势;3)中国男篮整体竞技实力不均衡,单兵作战能力不足,身体对抗能力差,在攻防转换与配合上不适应当前篮球快速多变的攻防节奏变化。因此,中国男篮要提高整体竞技实力,加强身体素质训练,提升篮球素养,更好地适应当前世界篮球“快速、灵活、准确”的发展趋势。

Objective: to explore the winning factors of the world high-level basketball competition, analyze the reasons of Chinese men’s basketball team losing in the competition and the gap between Chinese men’s basketball team and the world’s top teams, so as to provide reference for Chinese men’s basketball team to enhance its competitive strength. Methods: The logistic regression model of the winning factors was constructed by using the binary logistic regression method, with 20 technical indexes in 92 matches competed by 32 teams in the 18 th Basketball World Cup as independent variables and the competition results(winning or losing)as dependent variables. Results: Only 5 technical parameters were entered the regression model by logistic regression analysis, namely backcourt rebounds(β=0.371, p=0.000<0.05), assists(β=0.252, p=0.000<0.05), steals(β=0.326, p=0.015<0.05), field goal percentage(β=0.396, p=0.000<0.05), individual fouls(β=-0.143, p=0.005<0.05), and there is a significant difference in the influence on the competition result(win, lose). Therefore, Chinese men’s basketball team should improve the overall competitive strength, strengthen physical training, and better adapt to the current trend of development in the basketball nowadays, i.e. “fast, flexible and accurate”.