固废填埋长期环境安全和寿命预测研究综述

Research status and prospect of long-term environmental safety and life prediction of solid waste landfill

我国固废填埋场数量多、运行水平低、设施老化快、预期寿命偏短且寿命到期后老化严重.与此相对,固废填埋场寿命相关研究却存在关注度较少、研究方向不明确、研究内容不系统等问题.本文综述了通用工程领域寿命预测的基本概念及其发展历程,分门别类地梳理工程寿命预测的主要研究对象和研究方法;在此基础上,结合固体废物填埋工程和实际特征,系统描述了固废填埋场工程材料性能退化的主要机理和预测方法、填埋整体性能评估方法等,并提出当前研究存在的不足和进一步开展的工作.主要结论如下:通用工程寿命研究遍布国民生产生活的各个领域,研究对象包罗万象覆盖机械设备、建筑工程、以及各种通用材料和零部件等,形成了基于系统学和决策论、基于仿真模拟模型、以及基于经验方法的三种工程寿命预测方法;固废填埋领域目前重点针对HDPE膜防渗材料和导排介质材料,基本明确了上述材料的老化机理和老化预测方法,形成了填埋场整体性能预测的方法,并耦合整体性能预测模型和材料老化预测模型探索开展了固废填埋场长期性能演化预测研究.论文最后指出固废填埋工程寿命预测研究应该加强和完善的内容,包括完善寿命预测理论体系基础理论与框架体系、深入开展极端服役条件下的核心材料老化机理和预测方法研究、开展中晚期寿命(剩余寿命)预测技术研究,以及强化寿命预测应用研究等.

China had a large number of solid waste landfills, low operation level, fast aging of facilities, short life expectancy and serious aging after life expiration. In contrast, there were some problems in the research on the life of solid waste landfill, such as less attention, unclear research direction, unsystematic research content and so on. In this regard, according to the idea from general to special, this paper first summarized the basic concepts and development process of life prediction in general engineering field, and sorted out the main research objects and research methods of engineering life prediction;On this basis, combined with the engineering and practical characteristics of solid waste landfill, this paper systematically describe the main mechanism and prediction method of material performance degradation of solid waste landfill, the evaluation method of overall landfill performance, and put forward the shortcomings of current research and further work. The main conclusions were as follows: the research on general engineering life covers all fielded of national production and life. The research objects include mechanical equipment, construction engineering, and various general materials and parts. Three engineering life prediction methods based on Systematics and decision theory, simulation model and empirical method were formed;At present, in the field of solid waste landfill, the aging mechanism and aging prediction method of HDPE membrane impervious materials and guide and discharge medium materials were basically clarified, the overall performance prediction method of landfill was formed, and the long-term performance evolution prediction research of solid waste landfill was carried out by coupling the overall performance prediction model and material aging prediction model. Finally, the paper pointed out that the life prediction research of solid waste landfill engineering should be strengthened and improved, including improving the basic theory and framework system of life prediction theory system, deeply carrying out the research on the aging mechanism and prediction method of core materials under extreme service conditions, carrying out the research on the prediction technology of middle and late life(residual life), and strengthening the application research of life prediction.