中国城镇化对森林生态安全的影响

Impact of urbanization on forest ecological security in China

森林关系国家生态安全,城镇化已经成为中国的一个重要发展战略规划。既要推进城镇化,也要提高森林生态系统的安全性。中国城镇化是提高森林生态系统安全性还是恶化森林生态环境,存在争议。借鉴PSR模型、EKC曲线,采用1999—2018年中国省际面板数据,分析森林生态安全指数时空变化,建立固定效应模型研究中国不同时期、不同区域城镇化对森林生态安全的影响,得出以下结论:(1)1999—2018年,中国森林生态安全指数均值从0.4683上升至0.5038,森林生态安全水平整体上得到了提升。(2)总体样本上,城镇化与森林生态安全指数之间存在倒“U”型。城镇化水平较低时,能够提高森林生态安全水平,反之,降低森林生态安全系统的安全性。(3)城镇化对森林生态安全的影响存在时间差异性,1999—2010年,城镇化与森林生态安全显著正相关,而2010—2018年,二者负相关。(4)城镇化对森林生态安全的影响存在区域差异性。东部地区城镇化与森林生态安全显著负相关,而中西部地区二者正相关。此外,三二产业占比与森林生态安全指数正相关,产业结构升级带来森林生态安全的改善。基于以上分析,本文建议:(1)城镇化水平较低的地区,加快农村劳动力向城市转移,促进农村人口向城市集聚,而城镇化水平较高的地区,加强森林生态安全红线控制,降低能源总量消耗和污染总量排放。(2)用生态文明理念引领产业结构实现绿色转型,推进循环经济。

Forests play an important role in maintaining national ecological security, and urbanization has been an importantly strategic development plan in China. We should not only promote urbanization, but also improve the security of forest ecosystems. It is controversial whether urbanization in China will improve the security of forest ecosystem or worsen the forest ecological environment. The paper applies the PSR(Pressure-State-Response)model and EKC(Environment Kuznets Curve), uses the panel data of China′s provinces from 1999 to 2018 to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of forest ecological security index. We establish a fixed effect model to study the impacts of urbanization in different periods and regions on forest ecological security in China. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, from 1999 to 2018, the average forest ecological security index in China increased from 0.4683 to 0.5038, indicating that the forest ecological security level has been improved. Secondly, in the overall sample, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and forest ecological security index. When the level of urbanization is low, urbanization can improve the level of forest ecological security. On the contrary, urbanization can reduce the security of forest ecological security system. In addition, the impacts of urbanization on forest ecological security are temporal differences. From 1999 to 2010, there was a significantly positive correlation between urbanization and forest ecological security index, while from 2010 to 2018, there was a negative correlation between urbanization and forest ecological security index. Finally, there are regional differences in the impact of urbanization on forest ecological security. There is a significantly negative correlation between urbanization and forest ecological security index in eastern China, while there is a positive correlation between urbanization and forest ecological security index in central and western China. In addition, the ratio of tertiary and secondary industry is positively correlated with forest ecological security index, which indicates that the upgrading of industrial structure brings the improvement of forest ecological security. Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are proposed:(1) we should accelerate the transfer of rural labor force to cities and encourage rural population to migrate to cities in areas with low urbanization level. We should strengthen the control of forest ecological security red line in areas with high urbanization level, and reduce total energy consumption and total pollution discharge.(2) Green transformation of the industry and circular economy should be promoted under the guidance of the concept of ecological civilization.