地方政府举债何以影响城市创新

How Does Local Government Debt Affect Urban Innovation?

本文在理论机制分析的基础上,基于我国城市面板数据,运用固定效应模型、分位数回归模型、中介效应模型等方法,实证检验了地方政府举债对城市创新水平的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,地方政府举债显著提升了城市创新水平,并且随着城市创新水平提升,地方政府举债对城市创新的促进作用具有先增强、后减弱的“倒U型”动态发展特征。此外,地方政府举债对城市创新的促进作用具有时空异质性特征,2006年以来,我国地方政府债务对城市创新的促进作用逐年增强;东部地区政府举债对城市创新的促进作用显著弱于中西部地区。进一步研究发现,地方政府举债对城市创新并无直接作用,而是通过改善城市投资环境、促进城市投资集聚以及提高政府科技支出比重、强化政府创新职能两种机制推动城市创新水平提升,并且地方政府举债的投资集聚效应是其推动城市创新水平提升的主要原因。此外,地方政府举债对城市创新水平的影响存在着规模经济效应,随着政府债务规模扩张,地方政府举债对城市创新的促进作用逐渐增强。

On the basis of theoretical mechanism analysis,this paper empirically tests the impact of local government debt on the level of urban innovation and its mechanism. It is found that local government debt significantly improves the level of urban innovation,and with the improvement of the level of urban innovation,the role of local government debt in promoting the level of urban innovation shows the "inverted U" characteristics of first strengthening and then weakening. In addition,the role of local government debt in promoting urban innovation is spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Since 2006,the role of local government debt in promoting urban innovation has been increasing year by year. The role of government debt in promoting urban innovation in the eastern region is significantly weaker than that in the central and western regions. Further research finds that local government debt has no direct effect on urban innovation,but promotes urban innovation through two mechanisms:improving urban investment environment,promoting urban investment agglomeration,and increasing the proportion of government science and technology expenditure,strengthening the innovation function of the government. And the investment agglomeration effect of local governments? borrowing is the main reason to promote the level of urban innovation. In addition,the impact of local government debt on the level of urban innovation has the effect of scale economy. With the expansion of the scale of government debt,the role of government debt in promoting urban innovation has gradually increased.