中国双边服务贸易出口潜力及贸易壁垒研究

Empirical Research on China’s Bilateral Services Export Potential and Trade Barrier

针对中国服务贸易出口发展相对滞后问题,很少有研究从改善中国服务贸易出口地区结构的视角展开分析。本文基于扩展的引力模型对中国服务贸易总体及9个细分部门在不同市场的出口潜力及贸易壁垒进行了经验分析,主要结论包括:(1)在影响服务贸易出口的众多因素中,进出口双方的GDP、双边距离、进出口双方的经济自由度以及是否使用共同语言,不管对服务贸易总体还是对大多数服务部门都有显著的影响。(2)在中国服务贸易的29个出口市场中,除了中国的香港特别行政区和丹麦,对其他经济体的出口全部“贸易不足”。(3)旅游、建筑、金融服务和知识产权方面的4个部门对所有贸易伙伴的出口均“贸易不足”,文化娱乐服务出口对所有的贸易伙伴均“贸易过度”。(4)在中国服务贸易的主要出口市场中,日本和韩国对中国的贸易壁垒水平最高,其次是美国,然后是德国、法国,最后是英国、新加坡和中国的香港特别行政区。另外,对于中国服务贸易出口“贸易不足”的一些小型市场,它们对中国的贸易壁垒水平相对较高。

With regard to the lagging development of China’s export of trade in services,few studies have been carried out from the perspective of improving the export market structure. Based on the augmented gravity model,the paper makes an empirical analysis of the export potential and trade barriers of China’s service trade as a whole and nine sub-sectors in different markets. The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Among the many factors that affect the export of service trade,GDP and economic freedom of the importer and exporter,bilateral distance and the use of a common language have a significant impact on the service trade as a whole and on most service sectors.(2)In the 29 China’s service trade export markets,except Hong Kong SAR and Denmark,China’s export to other economies are all "insufficient trade".(3)Exports from tourism,construction,financial services and intellectual property rights to all trading partners are "insufficient trade". Exports of cultural and entertainment services to all trading partners are "excessive trade".(4)Among the main export markets of China’s trade in services,Japan and South Korea have the highest levels of trade barriers to China,followed by the United States,followed by Germany,France,and finally the United Kingdom,Singapore and Hong Kong SAR. In addition,for some small markets where China’s exports of services are "insufficient trade",they have relatively high levels of trade barriers to China.