基于蒙特卡罗法的昭西段高速公路边坡可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Expressway Slope in Zhaoxi Section Based on Monte Carlo Method

东河边坡的稳定性对昭通至西昌段高速公路的安全施工与运行具有重要影响。为全面分析东河边坡稳定性,在分析东河边坡工程地质特征的基础上,采用极限平衡法和蒙特卡罗法对边坡的稳定性及破坏概率进行了计算与分析。结果表明:边坡稳定系数计算结果显示东河边坡在天然工况下处于稳定状态,在降雨饱和工况下处于不稳定状态;可靠性分析结果显示边坡在天然工况下破坏概率为34.2%,处于中等危险性,在降雨饱和工况下东河边坡破坏概率为97.45%,处于不安全状态。两种计算分析结果一致,说明东河边坡的安全程度不高,需要进行加固处理,来保障高速公路安全施工和运行。

The stability of the Donghe slope has an important influence on the safe construction and operation of the highway from Zhaotong to Xichang. In order to comprehensively analyze the stability of the Donghe slope, based on the analysis of the engineering geological characteristics of the Donghe slope, the limit equilibrium method and the Monte Carlo method are used to calculate and analyze the slope stability and failure probability. The results are as followa: the slope stability coefficient calculation results show that the Donghe slope is in a stable state under natural conditions and unstable under rainfall saturated conditions;the reliability analysis results show that the slope failure probability under natural conditions is 34. 2 %, it is in a medium risk. Under the rainsaturated condition, the failure probability of the Donghe slope is 97. 45%, which is in an unsafe state. The two calculation and analysis results are consistent, indicating that the safety of the Donghe slope is not high, and reinforcement treatment is needed to ensure the safe construction and operation of the expressway.