举家迁移与农民工城镇落户意愿

Family Migration and Rural Migrant Workers'Willingness to Be Urban Citizens

举家迁移成为进城农民工的新常态和新趋势,解决好举家迁移人口的落户问题是户籍城镇化的重点任务。基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,应用Logit模型探讨了举家迁移对农民工城镇落户意愿的影响机制。研究结果显示:与非举家迁移者相比,举家迁移农民工的城镇落户意愿显著较高,该结论在纠正样本选择偏误和控制潜在内生性问题后依然成立且稳健。举家迁移的城镇落户意愿效应在不同群体中呈现出较大差异,该效应在一线城市、没有自购房、拥有失业保险和住房公积金的农民工群体中更为突出;随着本地社会活动参与程度逐步深入广泛,举家迁移的城镇落户意愿效应逐步增强。举家迁移还会通过提升农民工的城市生活现代化、城市归属感,间接强化农民工的城镇落户动机。基于此,推进举家迁移农民工的城镇落户,应努力排除农民工家庭化迁移障碍;完善农民工家庭政策体系,提升农民工的家庭发展能力;增强农民工家庭的黏合性社会资本,促进农民工的家庭城市融入。

Family migration is becoming the new normal and new trend in the way of migrant workers entering cities.The key task of increasing urbanization rate of residents with household registration is to help family migration workers to get urban Hukou.Based on China migrants dynamic survey,this paper uses binary Logit model to analyze the influence mechanism of family migration on migrant workers'willingness of urban Hukou register.Furthermore,in order to overcome the endogenous problems caused by the selective bias and bidirectional causality of the samples,propensity score matching(PSM)method and instrumental variable regression(IVprobit)are adopted to conduct endogenous analysis.The result are as follow:Firstly,compared with non-family migrants,family migrant workers have a significantly higher willingness to get urban hukou.This conclusion is still valid and stable after correcting the sample selection bias and instrumental variable regression.Secondly,the effect of urban hukou willingness of family migration is quite different among different groups.The effect of urban hukou willingness of family migration is more prominent among migrant workers in first-tier cities,no house of their own,unemployment insurance holders and housing accumulation fund holders.As the degree of participation in local activities gradually deepens and widens,the effect of urban hukou willingness of family migration gradually increases.Thirdly,the family migration will also indirectly strengthen migrant workers'willingness of urban hukou register by absorbing into local modern city life and enhancing their sense of belonging to modern cities.Therefore,to promote family migrant workers'willingness of urban hukou register,the government should make efforts to eliminate the obstacles of migrant workers'family migration,improve the family policy system of migrant workers and enhance their family development ability,strengthen the cohesive social capital of migrant workers'families and promote the integration of migrant workers'families into cities.