国企改革对初婚年龄的影响--基于辽宁省2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据的实证研究

Impact of State-owned Enterprise Reform on the Age of First Marriage--An Empirical Study on the Micro Data in the Sampling Survey of 1% Population of Liaoning Province in 2005

本文从辽宁省2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据中构建了一个对比样本,即工作单位性质为机关事业单位和国有及国有控股企业的两类人群,采用事件史分析方法来观察这两类人群在初婚年龄上的差异情况。至少在统计意义上,本文基于辽宁人口抽样调查微观数据所构建样本的实证结果中,没有看到20世纪末国企改革对这两类人群初婚年龄的差异情况有显著影响。本文认为,婚姻行为模式的长期变化可以是社会整体变迁的结果,但短期宏观事件冲击所带来的影响需要更加谨慎地判断。

This paper constructs a comparative sample from the data in the sampling survey of 1%population of Liaoning Province in 2005,including two groups of people who work in government and state-owned enterprise,and uses event history models to observe the differences in the age of first marriage between these two groups.At least in the statistical sense,in the empirical results of the samples constructed based on the micro data of Liaoning Population Sampling Survey,we do not find that the reform of state-owned enterprises at the end of last century had a significant impact on the difference in the age of first marriage between this two groups.This paper argues that long-term changes in marital behavior patterns can be the result of social changes as a whole,but the impact of short-term macro events should be judged more carefully.